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Saturday, 8 December 2018

Spending shifts to online

Retail steady

Retail turnover increased by a seasonally adjusted 0.3 per cent to $27 billion in October 2018.


The household saving ratio has declined, as should happen with lower interest rates, and this in turn has been reflected in modest annual growth in retail turnover of 3.6 per cent. 


Department stores hurting

At this stage of the housing market cycle we should expect some migratory shifts towards south-east Queensland, and to some extent this was reflected in the monthly retail turnover figures for New South Wales (-0.4 per cent) and Queensland (+1.1 per cent).

Adverse weather did negatively impact the results for some New South Wales industries in October, with the annual growth in retail turnover now being championed by Victoria and Tasmania. 


Online spend

Not a remarkable set of numbers, overall, then.

The most interesting point was that online retail turnover contributed some 5.9 per cent of retail turnover this month, representing a rapid ascendancy from only 4.7 per cent a year earlier. 


Consumers and stock market investors should take note of the continued poor performance of department stores, as the arrival Amazon Australia and other low-cost retailers puts further pressure on margins. 

There is a long and growing list of retail failures in Australia. 

But as the headline figures show, this doesn't mean people aren't spending; they are spending, but in a different way.