Podcast: What the rate pause and Budget shock mean for Australia’s property market

2-Sense podcast

A rundown of what we covered in the podcast this week:

In this episode of the Australian Property Podcast, Pete Wargent and Chris Bates unpack a housing market that is trying to stabilise after the Budget shock, without much conviction that the hard part is over.

They start with the Reserve Bank holding the cash rate at 4.35%. Bond yields are off their peak, some fixed rates are edging lower, and buyers are asking whether confidence can rebuild. Pete and Chris explain why that does not guarantee a strong recovery while policy uncertainty, softer investor demand and weak sentiment still weigh on Sydney and Melbourne.

The episode then turns to what is changing on the ground. Investors are pulling back, upgraders are cautious, first-home buyers are getting a little more breathing room, and rents remain under pressure because vacancies are still tight. They also unpack stamp duty changes, buyer incentives and why mortgage stress is still more of a pressure story than a distressed-sales story.

Finally, they look ahead to late 2026 and 2027. If rates fall meaningfully, the market could find a new leg higher. If cuts stay modest, Australia may be heading into a slower, more balanced phase instead. It is a useful episode for buyers, investors and homeowners trying to work out what matters now and what noise to ignore.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

You can also watch the YouTube version here:

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You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

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And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

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By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

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Sales of new homes fell -16.7c in May

New home sales plunge

The Federal Budget is designed to stop investors looking at established housing - which has happened - and instead buy new housing - which hasn't.

In May, new home sales fell -17 per cent.

Source: HIA

It's only one month of figures, but it's hardly an auspicious start, with policy uncertainty dampening the appetite for investment in housing.

Tim Reardon of the HIA commented:

"During the 2019 Federal Election campaign, uncertainty surrounding proposed changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax contributed to weaker housing activity. Once that uncertainty was removed, confidence and housing demand recovered rapidly.

"The recent moderation in sales should therefore be viewed as a decline in confidence rather than a decline in housing demand."

You can read HIA's media release here. 

---

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Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 18k followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Estimated population growth was +412,500 in 2025

Immigration steadies

Net immigration slowed to just over +300,000 in 2025, giving some justification to commentators who'd been arguing that population growth is back under control.

That said, the figure is still absolutely miles above the earlier Budget estimates, while more timely indicators from the ABS (labour force data) appear to imply that something of a reacceleration has seemingly taken place in 2026.

Overall, estimated population growth in 2025 was +412,500.

Source: ABS

The outflow of migrants from NSW to Queensland has slowed over recent quarters and appears to be normalising as the housing affordability gap closes. 

The Western Australian population surge also looks to be normalising lower now.

Absolute net overseas immigration in calendar year 2025 was strongest by far in New South Wales (+91,000) and Victoria (+85,000).

Source: ABS

The result was estimated population growth of +117,300 in Victoria in 2025, as well as +104,600 in New South Wales, +92,200 in Queensland, and +65,500 in Western Australia. 

Source: ABS

Overall, population growth did slow from the blistering all-time highs of post-pandemic 2023 - to an estimated +412,500 in 2025.

However, there may be another burst of immigration to come in 2026 before the slower economy kills the cycle, which is probably going to be politically unpopular given the parlous state of the rental market.

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Elsewhere, Cotality's monthly housing chart pack showed that total new listings may already be fading as confidence among vendors falters. 

Source: Cotality

Total stock listings are now higher over the year in Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane, but the flow of new listings is already now dropping off in Sydney, and in much of regional Australia stock listings remain lower than a year ago. 

Source: Cotality

Rental vacancy rates fell -0.2 percentage points back to the record low levels of around 1½ per cent, and rental price growth has continued to reaccelerate (+5.9 per cent over the year to May).

Source: Cotality

As such, rental yields are rising, but not by nearly enough at this stage to assuage prospective investors. 

---

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 18k followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

RBA on hold, interest rate hikes done?

ausbiz TV

The RBA Board unanimously voted to keep interest rates on hold today at a cash rate target of 4.35 per cent, as it looks increasingly likely that the cycle is done.

The WIT crude oil price fell another -7 per cent to below $76/barrel overnight, whereas previously there had been fears and forecasts of $200/barrel!

The statement from the Aussie central bank was perhaps marginally more dovish that expected. 

Australia's 3-year bond yield has been trading at around 4.4 per cent.

I joined Andrew G on ausbiz TV to discuss the RBA interest rate decision, and the impacts for the housing market.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

James Foster took a further look at the interest rate decision details here.

---

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 18k followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Asking rents rise by 7.8pc over the year (SQM Research)

Winter rental trends

SQM Research released its latest vacancy rates data for the month of May.

There's an ongoing debate about the likely impact (or otherwise) of the proposed tax changes, but in reality it's probably going to be a couple of years before we get a fuller picture on that. 

It's worth noting that the cooler months of May, June, and July are typically the quietest for some parts of the rental market, with many more rental vacancies in the tourism and working holidaymaker hotspots (such as Bondi or the Gold Coast). 

SQM provided a decade's worth of historical rental vacancy data for Bondi to underscore the point:

Source: SQM Research

Rental vacancies did pick up in May, albeit only to a national rental vacancy rate equating to 1.2 per cent, which is historically speaking very low. 

Source: SQM Research

As such, advertised rents have continued to blaze higher over the past year, across the 8 capital cities of all states and territories.

You can read SQM's media release here. 

---

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 18k followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

2-Sense podcast: The post-Budget property reset — fear, buyers and what happens next

2-Sense podcast

Here is what we discussed:

In this episode of the Australian Property Podcast, Pete Wargent and Chris Bates step back from the panic that followed the federal Budget and ask what is actually changing in Australia’s housing market. The headlines have turned hard, sentiment has cooled quickly and buyers are suddenly hearing talk of weaker auctions, falling prices and a tougher road for investors.

Pete and Chris explain why the fear feels louder than the facts, why some owner-occupier markets may hold up far better than investor-led pockets, and why softer turnover can show up long before the national data fully catches up. They also discuss why first-home buyers may get a little more breathing room if investors retreat, but why that same shift could deepen rental pressure and make the supply problem worse.

The episode then moves from headlines to strategy. Pete and Chris unpack where capital may flow next, including commercial property and new apartments, and whether those pivots genuinely stack up for investors. They also weigh up the more constructive side of the story: ongoing housing undersupply, easing rate expectations and the chance some of the most dramatic policy fears get diluted over time.

Plus, they answer listener questions on land tax, retirement pressure and what a move to New Zealand could mean for Australians with property held across multiple structures. If you want a practical take on the post-Budget property reset, buyer opportunity and the risks hiding underneath the noise, this is a timely episode to queue up.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

You can watch the YouTube video here:

---

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 18k followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Net long-term arrivals reaccelerate

Record arrivals into Oz

The ABS released the latest arrivals and departures figures for the month of April 2026.

There were more permanent and long-term arrivals than for the same month last year, and fewer departures.

As such, net permanent and long-term arrivals are now back at around all-time highs over the year to April 2026.

The ABS will release the next figures for net overseas migration on Thursday next week, which will show where the population is growing fastest. 

In other news, the oil price fell to a 2-month low on hopes an Iran peace deal (again).

To be fair, Brent crude oil prices do appear to be pricing for an end to the war as being imminent.

Australia's benchmark 3-year bond yield has pulled back significantly from above 4.8 per cent in March to around 4.4 per cent today.

More economists are now expecting the next month in interest rates to be down.

---

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 18k followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Asking rents power on

Rents up again in May

May is generally a quieter time of year for the rental market, and the national residential vacancy rate ticked up to 1.2 per cent last month, according to SQM Research.

Obviously this still equates to, historically speaking, a tight rental market.

Source: SQM Research

Asking rents, meanwhile, have powered on.

Over the past quarter, capital city asking rents for houses rose +1.3 per cent, to be some +8.2 per cent higher over the year.

For units - a greater share of which are owned by landlords - capital city asking rents rose by a strong +2.2 per cent over the past quarter, to be +6.7 per cent higher over the year.

Source: SQM Research

House asking rents have softened lately in Adelaide, perhaps due to affordability challenges, but have been very strong in Melbourne, Canberra, Darwin, and elsewhere. 

Unit asking rents have been variously strong in Sydney, Canberra, Hobart, and Darwin.

As such, with lower asking prices for houses over recent weeks and months, rental yields are in the process of resetting higher, particularly so in Sydney and Melbourne.

---

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 18k followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Buffett Indicator reaches record 238%

Buffett Indicator

The Buffett Indicator is a broad valuation method used for the US stock market, calculated by dividing the total market capitalisation of publicly traded stocks over GDP, expressed as a percentage.

For example, if the total market cap of stocks was double the annual GDP of the US economy, the Buffett Indicator would be said to be 200 per cent.

As noted at 'Longtermtrends.com', Warren Buffett popularised the measure in 2001 by describing it in Fortune magazine as the single best measure of valuation for any given point in time, effectively calculating a sort of 'price to sales' ratio by comparing the market cap of stocks to annual economic output. 

100 per cent was previously considered to be something of a balanced market valuation, and 120 per cent a significant overvaluation.

This week the Wiltshire 5000 to GDP proxy indicator hit an unprecedented 238 per cent, so I'm not quite sure what you'd call that.

Source: longtermtrends.com

You could variously make a case for the impacts of low interest rates, technology and AI efficiencies, and changing trends in corporate profitability.

But still it'd be a case of 'no crying in the casino' if valuations fell 10-20 per cent from here. 

Look at some of what's been going on in recent days.

We now appear to be headed for no fewer than three US$1 trillion plus IPOs (SpaceX, which reportedly could float at a valuation of anywhere up to $2 trillion, ChatGPT, and Anthropic). 

At the first signs of stock market volatility the President posited that the US government could be looking to take a stake in AI companies, further fuelling the remarkable short-term bullish vibes.

Government involvement could be seen as a typical cyclical top signal of extreme late-cycle euphoria, but who knows?

---

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 18k followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Next move in rates is down (NAB)

Biz survey pressures ease

NAB's business survey showed business confidence still mired in hugely negative territory at an improving reading of -14, with business conditions steady at +3.

Interestingly, and perhaps a bit surprisingly, cost pressures eased quite significantly in May, following the spike in April related to the Iranian conflict.

Although cost pressures do remain elevated, maybe this represents some early signs of demand destruction.

Source: NAB

Margin pressures are persisting for businesses, while the ongoing downtrend in capacity utilisation points to an ensuing slowdown in economic growth in the second half of 2026.

Both NAB and the the Commonwealth Bank of Australia now see the next move in interest rates as being down, although the timing is uncertain.

Dwelling values rise towards $13 trillion

Before the Budget, the total value of Australia's dwelling stock rose by 2½ per cent or $316 billion in the March 2026 quarter to a total value of $12.8 trillion.

Source: ABS

Western Australia saw its median dwelling price increase by 25 per cent over the year to March 2026, with Queensland's median dwelling price also up by 17 per cent.

Source: ABS

Since values last fell in September 2022, the total value of housing stock has increased by $3 trillion.

You can read the ABS report here.

Of course, this is somewhat old news given that Sydney and Melbourne have been in a downturn for some time now, and because it's been also a month since the Federal Budget was handed down, with its significant proposed changes to tax legislation.

Asking prices for houses nationally are now down -0.7 per cent over the past quarter according to SQM Research's indices (for units asking prices have continued to rise for now, up by 0.7 per cent over the month, and 1.8 per cent over the quarter).

Source: SQM Research

For Sydney, asking prices for houses are down -2.9 per cent over the quarter, while houses in Brisbane (-2.8 per cent) and Melbourne (-2 per cent) are displaying a similar downtrend. 

Source: SQM Research

Shane Oliver of AMP calculated that rental yields would quickly reset higher - rather than the market seeing a protracted or drawn-out downturn - with prices projected to fall -5 per cent overall while rents rise, and on this evidence he may well be right. 

Treasury had previously predicted that the tax changes would see housing price growth as -2 per cent lower than would otherwise had been the case over two years, albeit it's arguably doubtful that anyone truly believed in such a benign calculation. 

Macquarie Bank also projects housing turnover to fall by -20 per cent, with nominal housing prices to fall by -5 per cent in this cycle. 

It seems to be occurring pretty quickly according to these figures.

---

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 18k followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.