Steady as she goes
After declining a little over the previous couple of months, the number of employed persons rebounded a strong +76,000 higher in June, driven by a +47,000 increase in part-time employment.
More persons than usual were waiting to start work in May, and then commenced work in June, reported the ABS.
This moved markets to price around a 1 in 3 chance of an interest rate hike in August.
The monthly jobs figures are absolutely all over the place, but looking through the monthly noise the 3-month average employment gain picked up again to a steady +27,000.
However, the result probably wasn't quite as strong as a it first looked.
The ABS noted an issue with its income rotation groups for New South Wales and Victoria, with several of the quality assurance tests throwing up results outside of the tolerance ranges, suggesting that the pop higher in monthly employment could easily reverse next month.
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate also moved marginally higher from 4.37 per cent to 4.43 per cent.
The trend in unemployment rate remains gently higher, and further the unemployment rate of 4.4 per cent is a little higher than earlier Reserve Bank SOMP trajectory forecasts of 4.2 per cent.
By far the highest unemployment rate was seen in Victoria at 5.1 per cent - the highest since the COVID lockdowns - though it's possible that sample issues could've had an impact here too. Maybe.
Moreover, the underutilisation rate has continued to move higher to the highest level since 2021, with the youth employment market looking particularly soft.
Ergo, this is not a tightening labour market.
Finally, the growth in the working age population over the year was a solid +402,200 or +1.8 per cent.
Overall, a super-strong headline result, which was tempered by the sampling issues and the ongoing increase in underutilisation.
---
1. Download our property buying guide
Download our free property buying guide here.
You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here.
Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing.
2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors
Listen in to our podcasts
The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.
And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.
3. Subscribe for my free daily blog
Subscribe for my free daily blog here.
You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 18k followers.
By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here.
My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here.
4. Work with me privately
For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.
