Pete Wargent blogspot

PERSONAL/BUSINESS COACH | PROPERTY BUYER | ANALYST

'Must-read, must-follow, one of the best analysts in Australia' - Stephen Koukoulas, ex-Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

'One of Australia's brightest financial minds, must-follow for accurate & in-depth analysis' - David Scutt, Markets & Economics Editor, Sydney Morning Herald.

'I've been investing 40 years & still learn new concepts from Pete; one of the best commentators...and not just a theorist!' - Michael Yardney, Amazon #1 bestseller.

Thursday, 20 December 2018

NSW unemployment rate hits 40-year low

Unemployment keeps declining

Stacks of interest in today's employment report - so much, in fact, that the ABS website crashed again.

Funding required, to use a hackneyed Muskism.

The composition swung back to part-time, but the economy added another +37,000 jobs in November 2018 on a seasonally adjusted basis to 12.7 million, led by firing Victoria at +30,900. 

Looking through the noise the economy added an impressive +295,700 to total employment year-on-year, for a growth rate of 2.4 per cent. 


On a cyclically positive note the trend participation rate hit the highest level on record.

And in spite of this the trend unemployment rate continued to decline to 5.12 per cent, the lowest since all the way back in July 2011. 





Victoria has been the great improver of late, but New South Wales saw its unemployment rate fall to a 40-year low of just 4.4 per cent.


The annual growth in hours worked was still very modest at under 2 per cent, which is hardly a ringing endorsement of strength. 


The wrap

Another solid headline result, with employment growth continuing at a good pace through 2018 to date.

Excruciatingly all of this good work risks being undone as some bankers have practically gone on strike in protest at the Royal Commission. 

Overall, lagging indicators very good, leading indicators increasingly dicey (this isn't only my opinion, by the way, it's also the opinion of bond and futures markets).