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Saturday 8 December 2018

US record expansion continues

Jobs growth continues

US nonfarm payrolls notched a 98th consecutive month of gains at a hopefully more sustainable +155,000 in November, with modest downward revisions to preceding months (-12,000) slowing the 3-month average nofarm payrolls gain a little to ~170,000.

The result missed market expectations, but perhaps steadier employment growth shouldn't be unexpected after a record 8 years and 2 months of unbroken gains. 


The unemployment rate held at 3.7 per cent for a third month.

In fact, the unemployment rate fell from 3.74 per cent to just 3.67 per cent this month, for fans of additional decimal places.

There was growing evidence that this is pulling less advantaged Americans into employment, which is why continued expansion remains so important. 

The unemployment rate for those with only a high school diploma falling to levels last seen at the beginning of this century at just 3½ per cent, following on from consistently improved results for those without high school qualifications. 

Food for thought while Australia pursues its 'financial stability' alternative route! 


Average hourly earnings were up by 0.2 per cent for the month and 3.1 per cent for the year, translating only to modest real wage gains for now (partly due to high oil prices, which should change in due course). 


Treasury yields dipped a bit initially, but at first blush there's nothing in this report to stop a Fed hike in December.

The good news is that there was little sign of overheating or a risk of runaway inflation, with steadier employment gains being recorded.