Mexicans standoff
After several years of tightness, stock on market has picked up dramatically in Perth, as well as Brisbane and Adelaide.
On the other hand, new listings were dramatically lower over the past four weeks in Sydney (-26.6 per cent) and especially Melbourne (-29.4 per cent) versus a year earlier.
Source: Cotality
On this evidence, I'd suggest that Melbourne will be the first city to see its housing market bottom out and recover, followed by Sydney.
Victoria may also see a bit of a sentiment boost from a change of government after a dozen years.
Asking prices in Melbourne have already bottomed out for units, and indeed at the lower price points have probably been inching higher of late.
Source: SQM Research
The higher price points probably won't recover until market participants are certain that interest rates aren't going any higher, with many choosing to sit on the sidelines until then.
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The ABS released its lending finance figures for the September quarter.
Investor lending has collapsed since the Federal Budget, down by almost a third in the September quarter, and first homebuyer numbers were also -12.3 per cent lower than a year earlier.
The value of loans for the construction of dwellings also fell -14.4 per cent for owner-occupiers, over the quarter, and -11.8 per cent for investors.
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