Thursday, 15 October 2026

Unemployment rises to 4.72pc (new 5-year high)

Weak employment figures

So, it was a much weaker than expected labour force survey, with employment falling -39,000 in September. 


The 3-month average job 'gain' is now negative at -9,000.


The youth unemployment rate climbed to a new cycle high of above 11 per cent, and the underutilisation rate rose to 11 per cent.


The estimated growth in the civilian population aged 15 or over is still sprinting along at +1.7 per cent or +388,000 over the year.


As such the unemployment rate rose to a new 5-year high of 4.72 per cent.

This is now a couple of notches higher than the Reserve Bank's forecast for the end of the year, while the quarterly average unemployment rate for the September quarter of 4.6 per cent was also well above previous expectations. 


The wrap

Overall, this was a much softer than expected set of numbers, with markets looking for interest rates to be on hold for the rest of the year, and a further hike before mid-2027 no longer favoured.

Sine the beginning of the year the unemployment rate has increased quite significantly now from 4.1 per cent to 4.7 per cent, while interest rates have also been increased to new cycle highs of late. 

Australia's 3-year bond yield fell by about 10 basis points during today's trade, and is now trading at around 4.8 per cent.

It seems that the jobs market is no longer so tight - for inflation so much now depends on whether energy and fuel prices come back down. 

James Foster looked at the finer details here. 

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