Inflation expectations lowest in 32 months

Inflation expectations ease

While the shots continue to be fired between the Australian government and the central bank, in real time there appears to be a growing risk of the economy sliding into the mire.

The NAB Survey is arguably the closest we have to a real-time read on the state of play, and business conditions slipped by another -3 points to a reading of just 3 index points.

Business also confidence fell almost across the board, with particularly weak confidence in the retail sector notable, and the overall reading for confidence fell by -5 points to a negative reading of -4 index points. 

Source: NAB

Forward looking indicators continue to look moribund, too.

The monthly figures for prices tend to bounce around a lot, but the trend is clearly lower, and the figures for output prices have returned to long-term averages (while still trending lower).

Source: NAB Survey

Indeed, in separate news, AN-/Roy Morgan's consumer confidence survey for September showed inflation expectations falling to a 32-month low of 4.6 per cent.

That's broadly consistent with hitting the inflation target (indeed, consumer price inflation was under target through 2018 until 2021):

Overall, the NAB Survey made for pretty morose reading, foreshadowing a slowdown in hiring and wages growth, and the risk of rising unemployment as the economy stagnates further. 

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