Weak economy leads to rate cuts ahead (Aird, CBA)

Dovish tilt

Gareth Aird of CBA has delivered some outstanding analysis over the past year, and updated his views in a note last week.

The weaker than expected inflation figures point to a more dovish path ahead for interest rates, with the cash rate target expected to head towards 3½ per cent over the next 18 months.

If core inflation comes in at 0.8 per cent or lower for the September quarter as expected, then this would open the door to a first interest rate cut by November 2024.

As with many other countries, the path towards the inflation target has not been smooth, so there is a good chance that the first easing doesn't happen until early 2025.

Australia has been in a per capita recession over the past 18 months, and inflation generally lags the cycle.

Great analysis and graphs.

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