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Thursday, 20 July 2023

Record low unemployment rate for NSW

Unemployment holds firm

One of the most watched numbers in the economy - the unemployment rate - held firm at 3.5 per cent in June.

The trend rate of unemployment has been 3.5 per cent for the past 11 months. 


Total employment record a solid increase of +32,600, although the population increase is also much faster now.

Over the year total employment increased by 3 per cent to above 14 million, so there were very few signs of material deterioration here yet. 


New South Wales continues to power along, with a strong monthly increase in employment taking the unemployment rate down to a record low of just 2.9 per cent. 


Source: ABS

The numbers weren't quite as strong as they first appeared.

The underemployment rate is now 6.4 per cent, having bottomed out in February at 5.8 per cent.


Source: ABS

The underutilisation rate at 9.9 per cent is also above the cycle lows of 9.4 per cent.


Source: ABS

Overall, very solid release, although employment growth will have to be very high to keep up with population growth from here, and forward-looking measures don't indicate that's likely.

With the New South Wales unemployment rate housing price forecasts for Sydney keep getting revised up...but we are seeing some weakness in other parts of the market.


All eyes will now turn to the June quarter inflation figures, with headline inflation expected to fall from 7 per cent to 6.3 per cent, and core inflation likely to drop to 6 per cent, with the pace continuing to moderate from here on out. 

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James Foster chimes in with the detailed report here.