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Thursday, 27 July 2023

Inflation trends are down

Inflation trending down

The ABS produces a handy chart, which helps to show the recent trends in inflation.

In March 2022, inflation increased by 2.2 per cent over a quarter, the largest increase in many a year.

But in the most recent quarters inflation has fallen from 1.9 per cent in December 2022, to 1.4 per cent in March 2023, to 0.8 per cent in June 2023. 


Source: ABS

Next quarter a big quarter of inflation for September 2022 (1.8 per cent) will drop out of the annual figures, so we'll see another large drop in the inflation figures from 6 per cent to under 5 per cent.

Clearly policy settings are contractionary, and year on year consumer spending now appears to be in freefall.

Hence markets think that interest rate hikes are all but done in Australia. 

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Housing prices rose sharply in the June quarter on low stock numbers.

Price increase were led by a +5.3 per cent quarterly increase for houses in Sydney.


Source: Domain

Unit prices also increased +2.6 per cent in Sydney, with larger increases recorded in Brisbane, Melbourne, and Adelaide.

Source: Domain

Domain's full report for the June quarter can be found here.