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Tuesday 31 May 2022

Investors seeking an inflation hedge

Building approvals fall by a third

Building approvals fell further to 14,908, to sit at the lowest level since August 2020.

Attached dwelling approvals were -29 per cent lower than a year earlier, with Sydney and now Brisbane unit approvals trending lower. 


House approvals also continue to retrace post-HomeBuilder stimulus, to be -34 per cent lower than a year earlier. 


With multiple construction companies now going to the wall, residential construction activity will likely begin to drag on economic growth in due course. 

Credit impulse fades

Annual housing credit growth increased marginally to 7.9 per cent in April, though it has almost rolled over now.  



Owner-occupier credit growth is now in decline, with investor credit speeding up, rising from 5.3 per cent to 5.8 per cent in April. 

This is a much-needed increase, given the huge depletion in the available rental stock as the average household size declined through the pandemic. 


Overall, with housing credit growth no longer accelerating, the credit impulse suggests a slowing housing market, with prices in an outright decline in the upper price quartile of the market. 


Business credit was strong in the month, to be 11.4 per cent higher than a year earlier, hopefully a pre-cursor to productivity growth. 


Data dump

In other news, gross corporate operating profits surged to a record high, driven by mining profits, which have almost quadrupled in six years, leading to a surge in mineral exploration, especially in the Western Australian goldfields. 

The labour costs figures showed a solid increase in wages and salaries expenditure for the March quarter, and with an increase in inventories comfortably staving off the risk of a negative GDP print, interest rates will be hiked again in June. 

Overall, it seems that housing market investors know that interest rates are rising, but are continuing to seek an inflation hedge anyway, looking for lower-priced properties where rents will likely rise by 10 to 20 per cent this year.