Albo4PM
A quick 5-minute Sunday post on the election results.
After a gaffe-laden and fairly uninspiring campaign, to date the Labor party has polled at just 31.9 per cent of the primary vote in the 2022 Federal Election, a disappointing decline from 2019.
The electorate has clearly had more than enough of the incumbent Coalition, too, however, and with its primary vote slumping to 35.3 per cent we're all set for a change of government.
The Greens, 'Teals', and other independents garnered a combined one-third of the vote, which as far as I know is unprecedented, and after preferences Labor will clearly canter home.
To be fair, some of the decline in the Labor primary vote will evidently have been tactical, to ensure that independents defeated LNP candidates.
At the time of writing, 71 seats have been called for Labor and 52 for the Coalition, with 13 still in doubt (76 seats are required for a majority government).
Challenges ahead
Labor has previously won power from opposition in 1972, 1983, and 2007, and each time recessions were experienced, (although in 2008 no technical recession was recorded).
Of course, that's the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy in full swing, but it speaks to some of the challenges facing the economy, including the current weakness in real wages, inflationary pressures, and the cost of living crisis.
Through the election campaign, the ALP's Jim Chalmers was very strong and personable, and looks very much like a future Labor leader.
In fact since it's been three decades since a Labor PM served a whole term, so we might even see some jostling of positions sooner than one might expect.
With Treasurer Josh Frydenberg facing being ousted and losing his seat to independent Monique Ryan at Kooyong, the Coalition leadership may yet lurch to the right, perhaps in the shapely form of Peter Dutton. But that may not happen.
Balancing act
Overall, it was a strong showing for the climate-conscious parties, and a general message of dissatisfaction from the electorate, but the numbers show that Labor will comfortably form the next government.
A tricky balancing act lies ahead for the next couple of years, with the unemployment rate already at a 48-year low, a budget to be brough back into balance at some point, and a high headline inflation rate yet to be tamed.
Still, the electorate has been shouting loudly for a change of leadership and an opportunity for a new direction...and, well, here it is!
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Pepperstone recap, re. the election outcome and outlook:
