Recovery dragged back
The ABS payrolls index showed a stabilisation over the week to August 22.
There has been an ongoing recovery since April's nadir, but the momentum has slowed somewhat.
Payroll jobs are down -4.2 per cent since the week ending March 14.
This equates to a decline of -447,000 jobs in STP-enabled businesses, according to the ABS.
Broken down at the state level it becomes clear why: Victoria's ongoing lockdown has stymied the recovery.
Over the month to August 22 Victoria recorded a -2.0 per cent decline in payrolls, while the rest of the country recorded only a modest rise.
Interestingly Perth and Western Australia have seen the least impact from COVID-19 on payrolls data, suffering a slightly shallower downturn and a stronger recovery as the iron ore price has boomed to six-year highs.
The gold price has also been strong, which is a positive for WA.
These figures should be a wake-up call to policymakers hoping for some kind of a return to normal by Q1 2021, with total payrolls remaining way lower than six months ago, and Victoria's state government promising to keep the state in lockdown for the next couple of months at least.
Total new cases came in at 67 for Australia today, including half a dozen returned overseas travellers in hotel quarantine.
The 7-day moving average for new cases continued to trend lower to hit a 65-day low.
Victoria recorded 55 new cases today, but from only 8,704 reported tests, meaning that the positive test rate as the worst in a week at 0.6 per cent.
The business media in particular is questioning more and more frequently the merits of locking down the state's economy with so few deaths being reported under the age of 80 or outside of aged care facilities, or whether there might be a better way to protect the vulnerable.
Aged care deaths account for 569 of Australia's officially reported 770 deaths, from just over 2,000 confirmed cases.
Source: Australian Government
However, the rules now appear to be set out, so Victorians need to hope that new cases sink towards zero over the next couple of months, and remain there for long enough for the restrictions to be eased.
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h/t Olympic level payrolls analysis as always from James Foster.
