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Tuesday, 21 July 2020

Spending trends around the traps

Stimulus extended

The Treasurer confirmed today that the JobKeeper and JobSeeker stimulus would be extended out until the end of March 2020, with some of the eligibility rules to be tweaked accordingly.

It had been calculated that millions of Aussies were receiving more under the terms of the stimulus than they were earning before the onset of the pandemic.

Financial markets breathed a notable sigh of relief in sympathy with the news, as the last apparent threat of a September 'fiscal cliff' was removed.

The Aussie ASX 200 closed up very strongly by 154 points or 2.58 per cent today. 

Following some woeful results in April and May, home buying intentions soared in June to be back at near pre-COVID levels. 

The Commonwealth Bank reported a surge in fixed interest mortgage applications on the back of the substantial easing of monetary policy. 

The homebuying intention index had been running at near-record levels in March 2020, but then dropped into a depressed state for two months.


Source: CBA household spending intentions

Nila Sweeney added more colour in this article here at the AFR (paywalled):


The HomeBuilder package appears to have been a roaring success, driving a massive 77 per cent spike in new home sales, overwhelmingly in the detached house and land segment.

This was probably to be expected given the high number of registrations for new property sales, and now REA Group's internal data is showing massive increases in enquiries and sales data.


Meanwhile there is still a possibility that interest rates will be lowered further.

See here for further analysis by Sophia Rodrigues, central bank analyst:


It's also expected that the Reserve Bank will expand its balance sheet further over the coming months, according to the RBA's Annika Foundation speech today. 

Victorian lockdown

CBA's credit card spending data did report that the spending recovery in Victoria is lagging the rest of the country, a trend that will presumably be exacerbated by the 6-week lockdown across the state.

Victoria now has 3,147 active cases of the Coronvirus, mostly in Melbourne, following a net increase of another 348 new confirmed Victorian cases today.

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Home values in Melbourne are -3.34 per cent below their peak levels of early April, according to CoreLogic's daily home values index. 


It will be interesting to see how CBA's 'large rise in new mortgage applications' flows through to housing market activity over the next few months.