Election webinar
Pollsters and bookies were left stunned on polling day as PM Morrison swept to victory within a few short hours.
This appears to have been another case of behavioural herding and 'shy Tory' self-censorship, roughly in the spirit of Trump's victory and the Brexit vote.
Certainly on social media most of the political voices I follow are outspoken Labor voters, but the Liberals won easily in the end.
The Coalition ran a successful scare campaign on Labor taxes, while some material swings in Queensland and the Hunter Valley suggested that the jumbled stance on coal was a vote-killer for Labor.
From what was observed at investor conferences over the past fortnight the proposed reforms on franking credit refunds also went down like a lead balloon with the over 65s cohort.
Given it was essentially a one-man victory, PM Morrison will presumably hold plenty of sway in the Coalition circles for the next few years.
Stock markets will adjust quickly to any real or perceived impacts of the campaign and poll results, as they usually do, with perhaps a short-term bounce for banks and miners to follow.
Markets will likely still price in a couple of rate cuts this year, but maybe December 2019 indexed swaps which are pricing in even further easing will cop a bit of a hit.
Markets will likely still price in a couple of rate cuts this year, but maybe December 2019 indexed swaps which are pricing in even further easing will cop a bit of a hit.
Naturally there are some more structural factors to consider in terms of the economy and a looming Budget surplus, personal tax cuts to land in workers' pockets effective July 1 and more to follow, property taxation, the first homebuyer deposit scheme, and the now-remaining in place capital gains tax discount.
One of the many points we'll cover in our forthcoming webinar on Tuesday is how to build a strategy for all seasons, and for governments of all stripes.
We've had a big subscriber response but you can still find the details and reserve your webinar seat here.
