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Wednesday 15 May 2019

Wages show glacial improvement

Wages growth slow

Another quarter, another +0.5 per cent increase for wage price growth, with the annual pace at just +2.3 per cent. 

On the plus side private sector wage price growth is off the lows at +2.28 per cent, albeit still lagging behind public sector wages growth of +2.44 per cent. 


Inflation was zero in the March quarter, so in real terms wages growth was at the best level since 2012.

And including bonuses wages growth of +2.7 per cent was a bit more passable.

But still, it's a glacial improvement.

Around the traps

As expected Victoria leads the way with wages growth of +2.7 per cent, with slower wages growth elsewhere (and slow growth in Western Australia at only +1.6 per cent). 


The strength of hiring in Victoria proves that if you reduce the slack then private sector wages will rise.

Supply and demand: it still 'works'.


But policy makers may not have reckoned with the sheer force the construction downturn and its pervasive impact. 

Wages growth in the construction sector was already the slowest of all sectors at +1.8 per cent, and the NAB survey suggested that the bull case for employment has been shredded. 

Labour force figures tomorrow will be paramount, but financial markets are baying for rate cuts, now pricing in more than 50 basis points of easing.