Pete Wargent blogspot

CEO AllenWargent Property Buyers, & WargentAdvisory (institutional). 6 x finance author.

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Monday, 24 April 2017

Unemployment rate gets set to fall

Unemployment rate to fall

A number of indicators have suggested an improving outlook for the Australian economy, at least in the immediate future. 

Yet the unemployment rate has remained quite elevated at nearly 5.9 per cent on a seasonally adjusted basis. 

Flipping the unemployment rate on its head and mapping it against the strong jobs vacancies figures suggests that the unemployment rate should fall as 2017 progresses. 

And indeed the IMF recently forecast that Australian unemployment would fall from 5.9 per cent to 5.2 per cent this year. 

The May budget has yet to be released, but the above chart suggests it would be justified in assuming something similar. 

In reality the unemployment rate has already fallen well below 5 per cent in Sydney.

But elsewhere in the country unemployment and under-employment has been all too common.

A job search is most likely to be fruitful in New South Wales, with the number of unemployed persons per job vacancy having declined to below 3.