Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Friday, 21 April 2017

Foreigners taking our jobs?

Migration policy

It's been pointed out that most full time new jobs since the financial crisis have gone to overseas born workers. 

No doubting that this is absolutely true on a net basis.

A quick glance at the population pyramid explains part of the reason. 

Immigration policy encourages workers under the age of 30 to come to Australia.

Meanwhile at the other end of the spectrum, mostly Australian-born workers are dropping out of the workforce, or shifting to part time employment.

Thus on a net basis, most of the growth in new full time jobs is accounted for by overseas born employees. 


In reality, as I've shown many times on this blog immigration can rise faster when the economy is firing, and naturally falls again when the economy is weaker and thus not creating the jobs that incentivise migrants to come to Australia. 

There's no doubt that the economy has been through a sticky patch, and youth unemployment remains a little too high for comfort. 


Overall, immigration is a force for good, though, and improves the economy, as documented by the Productivity Commission:

"Younger and more skilled immigrants are best placed to make a positive economic contribution to Australia. 

These types of immigrants provide a demographic dividend by increasing the proportion of people in the workforce, thus reducing the negative impacts associated with an ageing population. 

Skilled immigrants are also more likely to generate spillover benefits through enhanced productivity, innovation, and greater flexibility to move to other occupations in response to changing labour markets."


The most recent Intergenerational Report projected that the population of Australia will likely expand significantly over the next four decades, concluding that:
  • lower immigration would lead to slower economic growth;
  • lower immigration would lead to an ageing population; and
  • lower immigration would lead to lower participation rates (with an adverse consequences the tax take).