Jobs ads recede
Job ads fell -0.9 per cent in April to 212,000 online advertisements - and are now lower over the year - according to the latest government statistics.
Source: Jobs & Skills Australia
The slowdown in hiring has been driven in part by Canberra cutbacks (with vacancies in the ACT down by -15.7 per cent over the year) and a somewhat sluggish result in Victoria (-2.3 per cent).
Source; Jobs & Skills Australia
Hiring to slow in 2026
Tomorrow morning the ABS will release the labour force survey for April, with the median market forecast expecting a slower trend in hiring, but the unemployment rate holding for now at just 4.3 per cent, seasonally adjusted.
It's probably still too early too see much meaningful impact in these figures from the Iranian conflict, three 25 basis points interest rate hikes...and now in May a confidence-sapping Federal Budget tax grab (needed to fund runaway spending on the NDIS and other projects).
Following recent central bank communications - including the latest Board Minutes - markets are pricing for an interest rate pause in June, and indeed journalists and interviewers are suddenly now discussing the possibility of a technical recession.
Still, there is plenty of inflation to be absorbed from the oil price shock, and markets are still looking for one further interest rate hike in this cycle before the peak is reached.
Polling latest
Although Federal Budgets can shift short-term consumer sentiment, rarely do they much impact political polling.
There's been some debate as to whether the seismic tax changes announced in this Budget - to negative gearing, capital gains taxes, and trusts - will see government popularity take a knock.
In truth, the full impacts of the policies won't be seen for at least a couple of years, so it's hard to say, but the early signs aren't exactly looking amazing for the government.
The government's saving grace may be that the conservative vote has fractured and split.
These are highly contentious changes to tax legislation, and it feels like there's plenty of water to flow under these bridges even before the next election.
If you'd like to discuss what the Budget changes mean for your strategy or portfolio, shoot me an email pete@allenwargent.com
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