Employment holds the line
Australia's civilian population increased by an estimated +1.84 per cent over the year to March 2026, according to the latest ABS labour force survey.
With population growth having remained so strong, it's taken a high level of government spending to keep employment growth up to speed, but to date it has certainly done so.
Employment increased +17,900 in March, a bit below expectations, but this came off the back of a strong number in February, and the March result was driven by a strong +53,000 increased in full-time employment.
Moreover, the quarterly growth in employment of +93,000 was the strongest since the September quarter of 2024.
The unemployment rate was broadly unchanged in March, falling slightly from a seasonally adjusted 4.28 per cent to 4.26 per cent.
We have booming Queensland to thank for that, where the unemployment rate fell to a remarkably low level at just 3.7 per cent.
At the other end of the spectrum, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Victoria inched slightly higher to 4.8 per cent.
Finally the underemployment rate held at a low 5.9 per cent, while the underutilisation rate has crept a bit higher since December, rising from 9.8 per cent to 10.3 per cent.
The wrap
Overall, these were solid enough numbers, which will lock in an interest rate hike for next month.
It's worth noting, though, that this labour force survey was in the field from March 1 to March 14, and confidence and conditions have deteriorated significantly through the past 4 weeks since then.
The unemployment rate is expected to lift towards 5 per cent as the year goes on.
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