Markets boost, oil falls
Markets got a huge confidence boost overnight on the announcement of a two-week ceasefire with Iran, though to be fair we have heard a similar sort of rhetoric before.
Australia's 3-year bond yield finished today around 11 basis points lower at 4.56 per cent, as Brent crude oil prices plummeted by $20 per barrel to $95, while the ASX 200 closed up by a hearty 2.55 per cent.
How long the initial markets euphoria lasts is less clear.
Futures markets are still looking for a little less than two further interest rate hikes in Australia to get inflation back under control, while there's not yet any clarity around how and when oil supply begins to flow more freely again.
Dwelling starts rise again
In other news, dwelling commencements got a strong uplift in the December 2025 quarter, rising by 8 per cent to around 53,600 seasonally adjusted.
This was the best quarter since 2021.
Still the pace of actual dwelling completions remained very slow at 43,500 in the quarter, seasonally adjusted.
Currently we're on track for around 875,000 dwelling completions over the five years from 1 July 2024, or less than ¾ of the government's 1.2 million homes Housing Accord target.
With housing project development remaining so slow, the number of homes under construction increased to around an elevated 236,000.
The standout sectors of the market have been detached houses in Perth, and a surge of new units under construction on the Gold Coast in south-east Queensland.
In the December 2025 quarter a decent chunk of the units approved in Sydney and New South Wales moved from the approved stage to breaking ground.
The wrap
Overall, there are now a lot of dwellings under construction in Western Australia and parts of south-east Queensland, but the rate of actual dwelling completions remains well below par.
With the Iran War since interrupting progress in 2026, the laggardly pace of construction versus population appears set to continue for another year.
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