Employment drops in far weaker survey

Hiring slows sharply

It was a much weaker than expected Labour Force survey for the month of November 2025, with employment falling by -21,000, and full-time employment dropping by -57,000.

The 3-month average employment gain has slowed to around +10,000 per month.

And the annual change in trend employment slowed to 1.3 per cent, for the slowest ex-pandemic result since late 2017. 

Jobs vacancies surveys have continued to moderate, suggesting further softness in hiring ahead. 

Under-employment rises

Despite this, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate held firm at 4.3 per cent, as the participation rate fell by 0.2 percentage points to 66.7 per cent.

Weaker participation rates are often a sign of a softening labour market environment (in fact, if the participation rate hadn't weakened this year, the unemployment rate would be nearly 5 per cent already, all else being equal). 

Both the underemployment and underutilisation rates rose by 0.4 percentage points respectively in November, reflecting the weaker result. 

Finally, as a related point of interest, the Aussie population aged 15 or over grew by 2.03 per cent over the year to November, confirming a clear acceleration since March 2025 (when the equivalent growth rate was 1.87 per cent). 

It has been debated much this year as to whether population growth has re-accelerated in 2025. 

Answer: it has. 

The wrap

Overall, despite the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate holding at 4.3 per cent, this was a much weaker result than expected, which will serve to temper some of the more aggressive market pricing for tighter monetary policy in 2026.

Labour markets remain significantly tighter in some states (e.g. New South Wales, Queensland) than others (e.g. Victoria). 

James Foster ran through the figures in more detail here. 

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