Job vacancies ease further
Job vacancies fell by another -10,000 over the three months to May 2024.
Over the course of two years, job vacancies have pulled back from a record high of around 475,000 to about 353,000, for a drop of -26 per cent from the peak.
Although job vacancies seem to remain elevated, in the context of a labour force which has exploded in size to 14.9 million, the weakening trend points to the unemployment rate heading to 4½ per cent, and then likely higher over the year ahead.
The number of unemployed persons per job vacancy has increased from a record low of under 1.1 (!) to 1.7 over the past 7 quarters.
At the state level, job vacancies have declined significantly from their highs in New South Wales (-47,000), Victoria (-39,000), and Western Australia (-25,000), in particular, with Queensland down -19,000.
Overall, the labour force figures are weakening and conditions are loosening.
SEEK's advertisements figures point to a probable faster increase in unemployment, while SEEK's advertised salary index increased by only +0.2 per cent last month, and +0.8 per cent over the past quarter, confirming that wages growth is also likely beyond its cycle peak.
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Temporary visa numbers remained close to record levels in May, excluding visitors.
Rental markets are experiencing some temporary respite at the moment, as international student numbers are lower in the middle of the year.
History shows that student visa numbers will likely be much higher over second half of the year, so although more applications are being rejected, we'll see record high temporary visas numbers of approaching 3 million by early 2025.
Population growth in Australia last year was +651,200, shattering the previous record high set in 2022 of +544,200.
Housing supply is locked in stalemate as the potential for interest rate cuts has been pushed further and further out until 2026, and APRA appears to be in no rush to cut lending assessment buffers either.
Meanwhile population growth continues apace, building up the pressures.
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