Aussies on long haul
I've been lurking around Europe quite a bit lately, and a bit like rats on the Tube in London you're seemingly never more than six feet away from a Southern Cross tattoo at the moment.
From London to Scotland, Florence to Venice, or the Amalfi Coast...practically half of my social media feed right now is comprised of Aussies enjoying some seasonal overseas bacchanalia.
And good luck to them, it's long past due in many cases!
It does mean that we'll likely get a resurgence in population pressures later in the year, but in the meantime there aren't quite so many people around, which may in turn mean some respite for rental markets.
Trade in surplus
The ABS released the international trade figures for June, which showed a -3.9 per cent drop in exports to $44.3 billion (to be fair, this is still a massive number in historical context; Australia is such a lucky country in this regard).
Coal and gas export values boomed to unprecedented highs last year - and into early this year - but are now retracing as commodity prices fall.
Iron ore will likely follow suit in due course, but meanwhile services exports continue their long recovery.
Imports also fell -1.7 per cent in June, with a $1.3 billion decline in the value of transport equipment imports, largely related to an expected drop in vehicle imports (which had boomed in May ahead of changes to tax incentives).
Overall, then, commodity exports are falling back to...well, earth...but with softer imports the international trade surplus remained enormous at $11.3 billion in June.
Tourism trends
As noted, the main thing which stood out to me in these figures was the tourism surge.
Tourism exports increased to $5.8 billion, the highest level for any month since 2019, so we're starting to get significant numbers of overseas tourists into the country again.
But there was also another jump in outbound Aussie travel, with the value of tourism debits up by a third since February.
The ABS did note that the usual seasonal trends may not apply, following the border closures and reopening, so the figures may be prone to revision in due course.
The wrap
Overall, then, tourism into Australia is recovering very well, but for the time being it's being partly netted off by more Australians enjoying an overseas trip.
Rental market pressures might ease for a little while, only to resurface in the new year when the international student intake powers in en masse.
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In other news, Australia's retail volumes fell -0.5 per cent in the June quarter, for a third consecutive quarterly decline for the first time since 2008.
That might partly be due to Aussies taking money overseas, but it's mainly down to higher mortgage rates biting.
With turnover and volumes both down, things are not looking at all healthy in retail land with consumer sentiment souring, and we should expect an increase in insolvencies over the second half of 2023.
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James Foster carried out the detailed analysis of the trade figures and retail volumes as always!
