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Thursday, 15 July 2021

Jobs recovery stalling out

Stall speed

Employment growth slowed in June, though there was still a decent increase of +29,400 or +0.2 per cent in the estimated number of total employed, to a record high of 13,154,200.

Employment was about +801,000 or a massive 6½ per cent higher than a year earlier. 


With population growth still only running at about +0.5 per cent, the unemployment continued to decline, now down to a decade low of 4.91 per cent. 


Victoria has been leaking residents to Queensland, and with the state's labour force actually shrinking since late 2019 the Victorian unemployment rate has plunged to just 4.4 per cent. 

With both Sydney and now Melbourne heading into renewed lockdowns - the fifth iteration for Victoria - Queensland is benefitting tremendously from interstate moves, with employment growth already leading in the nation by June at +235,000.


The growth in hours worked also looks to be losing momentum. 


Overall, a continuation of the excellent results since the nadir or May 2020, but with fresh lockdowns coming into force in July the momentum will likely now dissipate.