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Thursday 13 December 2018

Mining green shoots

Mining finance at 32-month high

Despite the slowdown in lending for housing the monthly for total lending finance has trended gently higher from $69 billion in April to $71 billion in October 2018. 

Although investment loans for dwellings have been smashed lower, there has been evident strength in commercial finance to some sectors such as mining and manufacturing.

The rolling annual value of fixed loans to the mining sector has really taken off, tripling from their 2017 nadir. 


Strength in commodity prices might just save the economy's butt.

Something needs to plug the gap because dwelling construction and the associated multiplier is rapidly being sucked down the gurgler. 

The value of sales of residential blocks is falling away, and sharply so in the case New South Wales. 


Spare a thought for homeowners in Darwin, where the once exuberant housing market is in a multi-year decline. 

Home values in the Top End are down 19 per cent since June 2014, but the declines are now accelerating. 

The monthly value of investment in dwellings for rent or resale is now as close to zero as you'll ever see. 


The latest figures for the NT economy are worse than atrocious, with private capital formation imploding by 28 per cent, and final demand contracting by more than 8 per cent in the September 2018 quarter alone. 

Household consumption was also very significantly in negative territory as the sun sets on Darwin's resources-driven boom.