Pete Wargent blogspot


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Sunday, 1 July 2018

Gloomy UBS forecast does not eventuate!

Multinational investment banking behemoth UBS ran a complex scenario analysis to forecast the winners of the 2018 World Cup.

Running some 10,000 simulations, UBS announced to the world that the winner of this year's global tournament would be...Germany!

Alas, to the wry amusement of economists everywhere, holders Germany were promptly dumped out of the event at the very first hurdle upon suffering a humiliating defeat at the hands of mighty South Korea. 

Now, it's all very well to sit on the sidelines and chirp, you might say, but what about my forecasts?

Well, apologies for the delay, but it's a difficult one this year with so many great sides in contention, including Brazil, Spain, France, and, erm, South Korea.

But having finally run a highly sophisticated Monte Carlo simulation model, my forecasts are finally in.

And here they are!

There will quite possibly be no daily blog on Wednesday due to the super-early kick off time.