Aussie slowdown bites
Retail turnover increased by just +1.1 per cent over the year to January.
After accounting for very rapid population growth and price inflation, this represents quite a significant slowdown for the sector.
Source: ABS
The national accounts reflected a very similar picture - the Aussie economy grew slightly in Q4 2023, up by 0.2 per cent, mainly thanks to mining exports and public spending.
However, after accounting for population growth, GDP per capita fell by -1 per cent over the past year.
Looking at the GDP per capita index shows the extent of the recent slowdown, particularly as compared to the early years of the resources boom.
For four quarters in a row now, the economy has failed to grow as measured in real per capita GDP.
Higher interest rates have had the desired effect, and have slowed the economy as expected.
If anything, it looks like interest rate hikes might have gone too far, sending mortgage interest payments spiraling higher.
This graphic isn't population-adjusted, but an increase in mortgage interest of +162 per cent from the lows would have to hurt!
The household saving ratio was notionally 'positive' in increasing to 3.2 per cent for the December quarter.
But this is a derived estimate, and after accounting for superannuation contributions and mortgage repayments, many households are now undoubtedly running down their buffers.
Overall, the economy has ground more or less to a halt, and has been going backwards over the past year in per capita terms.
Australia's 3-year bond yield is at the lowest levels in a while down at 3.63 per cent, with many households now waiting for some welcome relief on their mortgage payments.
Legendary analyst Jimmy Foster ran through all the key details
as always here!
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