New home sales lower
If you're not onto the output
here at Only Charts as part of Antipodean Macro you should definitely check it out (and it'll be well worth a sub when that time comes).
Another killer graphic today shows new home sales floundering further early in 2024:
Lending for new homes is tracking at around record lows, leaving the government's target of 1.2 million new homes in 5 years looking as far away as ever.
Conditions and confidence lower
Today's NAB survey showed conditions in the economy continuing to cool, though some price pressures in the economy still remain.
Business confidence is now below the long-run average after a strong couple of years, and business conditions continue to ease each month, including for the services sector which drives most of the Aussie economy these days.
Source: NAB Survey
There was a bit of a pick-up in prices in January, suggesting that there's at least some scope to pass costs onto consumers, at least for the time being.
Source: NAB Survey
Whether or not this continues to be the case as 2024 continues may prove to be a different matter, with retail conditions weakening, and discounting likely to be order of the day.
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The US inflation figures for January came in hotter than expected, rising +0.3 per cent for the month and +3.1 per cent for the year.
The core inflation figures were resolutely higher than desired, rising +0.4 per cent.
Two-thirds of the monthly inflation is still being driven by the cost of shelter, which again rose +0.6 per cent.
Exclude housing, and the Fed's job has long since been done.
Unfortunately everyone needs somewhere to live, and interest rate cuts are pushed further out, with Fed swaps pushing pricing for the first cut out from June to July.
Globally inflation rates have receded, but most of the major developed countries still have a bit of work to do in order to hit their respective inflation targets.
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