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Tuesday, 31 August 2021

Resi construction to go from tailwind to headwind

Approvals set to plunge

Building approvals fell by about 9 per cent in July 2021 to around 17,600 on a seasonally adjusted basis.

That's still 22 per cent higher than a year earlier, though, and the annual number of dwelling units approved is still very high at around 224,500. 

House approvals have been tracking at record highs over recent months, but will inevitably now fall as the tremendously effective HomeBuilder stimulus washes through. 

Unit approvals will also likely continue to trend lower over the year ahead, especially in Melbourne. 

There is still a large pipeline of new units due to hit the market in Footscray, Box Hill, Coburg, and South Melbourne, among other suburbs - representing a very significant percentage uplift to the existing stock of apartments - so expect the drop to continue for the Victorian capital. 

Overall, the stimulus was very successful in keeping construction at high levels, but it's reasonable to expect that this tailwind will soon become a headwind for the economy.