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Sunday, 1 August 2021

158 days later

158 days to go

Australia is now hitting at about 200,000 vaccine doses daily.

Over the past week, 1.2 million doses were administered.

Following some outlandish modelling about the potential for  up to 40,000 deaths in 4 months (in the worst case scenario), the government wants to see 70 per cent of eligible Aussies fully vaccinated before some restrictions are eased, and 80 per cent before further restrictions are eased.

Brisbane has gone into another 3-day lockdown, despite Queensland not seeing a single death in 16 months (actually there was one elderly gentleman in his 80s returning from the Philippines and PNG, who wasn't even diagnosed for five days, and later passed away).

The state has already seen 2.3 million vaccinations, so it's unclear how bad the pandemic could realistically get after all this time.

Short lockdowns are an annoyance, and may even serve a useful purpose, but Sydney potentially faces months in lockdown, with no detailed cost-benefit analyses being run or provided anywhere (unless I've missed them). 

It's hard to see how Australia ends up with a high number of deaths now, given 12.2 million vaccine doses have been administered already, largely to the most vulnerable, being those aged over 70.

At the current weekly run rate it will take 158 days - essentially until end of the 2021 calendar year - to hit 80 per cent fully vaccinated.

The quickening pace of the vaccine rollout is heartening, but there may be vaccine hesitancy issues to overcome yet in some parts of the community.

It also won't be long before there's a growing push to vaccinate kids, and also add a third 'booster' dose, and then there will no doubt be increasingly loud calls for ongoing 'targeted lockdowns' deep into 2022. 

In any case, anyone still believing government promises on timelines at this point needs their head read.

Basically not much will change until after the election.