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Thursday, 9 January 2020

Payday for iron ore rolls on

Imports weaker again

The trade surplus came in at a thumping $5.8 billion in November, again partly driven by weakness in imports, suggesting weakness in the domestic economy. 

The rolling annual surplus stands at an unprecedented $67 billion, as imports fell back again by -3 per cent to $35 billion.

Overall imports were down by some 3 per cent from a year earlier, only partly related to movement in the currency.


Nothing wrong with exports, though, as another $8 billion of iron ore exports led to a record A$94 billion total for the year to November (although recent months are now well off the highs). 

Gold has also been trading at record prices in Aussie dollar terms, and exports have been strong here too. 


Recent softness in coal and LNG has slowed the exports boom somewhat, but nevertheless record exports to China (38 per cent of merchandise exports) and the US drove a fresh high of $490 billion of exports over the year to November. 


The tourism related trade services balance exceeded a record $1.1 billion in November, however, this sector is likely to be impacted by more recent bushfires. 


Finally, Western Australia continues to run a vast trade surplus driven by the iron ore bonanza, with Queensland's surplus moderating on coal and LNG. 


Overall, another huge result for iron ore exports, bolstering the stock price of Fortescue ($10.85) and Rio Tinto (now back well over $100), but imports remained soft, reflecting a domestic economy running at stall speed.

While the iron ore price is ultimately expected to fall back towards US$55/tonne from its current US$95/tonne, this has inched the ASX 200 (XJO) towards a record close at around 6,875.