Pete Wargent blogspot


'Must-read, must-follow, one of the best analysts in Australia' - Stephen Koukoulas, ex-Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

'One of Australia's brightest financial minds, must-follow for accurate & in-depth analysis' - David Scutt, Markets & Economics Editor, Sydney Morning Herald.

'I've been investing 40 years & still learn new concepts from Pete; one of the best commentators...and not just a theorist!' - Michael Yardney, Amazon #1 bestseller.

Sunday, 13 October 2019

Transport & walkability


I've always believed that transport connections for the Central Business District and walkability will be two of the key determinants of property investment success as the capital cities become more mature. 

At the macro level factors in the economy, labour market, construction sector, and policy settings will drive median prices.

But at the micro level, a premium will be paid for the most desirable locations as the cities continue to densify rapidly. 

Here's another cautionary tale from Tarneit, where land has been released at a fearsome pace out on Melbourne's fringe, via the ABC:

Things are moving very quickly in this direction in Greater Melbourne and Sydney in particular. 


The week ahead

There may be a positive start for the Aussie stock market this week on trade war hopes.

The main data dump this week will be the Labour Force figures for September 2019, due for release on Thursday morning. 

All of the leading indicators now appear to point to a slowdown in hiring.

In saying that, the outgoing sample this week month has a lower employment-to-population ratio than the sample overall, so there may well be an upside surprise for total employment driven by sample rotation. 

Better measures of labour market slack to consider may include the underemployment rate (which rose from 8.4 per cent to 8.6 per cent in August), and the unemployment rate (which was up from 5.2 per cent to 5.3 per cent in August).