Twin surplus
Remarkably, we're heading imminently for both a current account surplus and a Federal Budget surplus.
More export records tumbled in the month of June 2019, sending total exports for the financial year up to $470.5 billion, a massive 17 per cent higher than in FY 2018.
Woo!
Imports were once again worryingly soft, sending the monthly trade surplus steepling to well beyond $8 billion.
Totally unprecedented, and even the trend chart is beginning to look rather demented.
Estimated Aussie dollar iron ore exports exploded to $9½ billion in June, which is comfortably the highest ever figure.
This is amazing stuff while it lasts, but within just a few short trades the iron ore price is now in bear market territory having tumbled by more than 20 per cent.
Finally, yet further falls in the Aussie dollar will encourage more vacations here rather than elsewhere, helping the rebalancing of the economy, as the floating currency so often does.
The wrap
An amazingly huge $8 billion trade surplus in June, with exports on fire, but the domestic economy appears to be in a bit of a bind.
Macquarie is now calling for rate cuts in both October and November, while Goldman Sachs is only one month behind.
CoreLogic is already reporting housing prices higher for the month and for the quarter in both Sydney and Melbourne.
