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Tuesday, 20 August 2019

Population boom quietly rumbles on

Population surge

A bit less so in the news at the moment, but there has been no slowdown in the rate of Australia's population growth.

The population clock will roar to beyond 25½ million within the next six weeks, having first passed 25 million just a year ago. 

Annual permanent and long-term arrivals hit a record high of 850,770 in FY 2019, up by +5.2 per cent from a then-record 808,530 a year earlier in FY 2018. 

This is something worth bearing in mind when commentary discusses the temporary apartment 'oversupply', despite the rapidly shrinking construction pipeline. 


Demographic estimates from the ABS lag significantly - but while there's no direct link there appears to be a fair chance that population growth could accelerate towards 450,000 in calendar 2019, despite election bluster about trimming the intake. 

Interestingly short-term arrivals from China have now hit a plateau, driven by factors of both here and there. 


However, education arrivals increased +5.9 per cent from a year earlier to a record 612,000 in FY 2019, from 577,700 a year earlier. 


And this further cements Greater Melbourne as the epicentre of Australia's population boom.


Buyers return in droves

There was a modest lift in capital city housing market listings this week, but this was outpaced by more buying activity and total listings are declining adding to upwards pressure in the market. 

CoreLogic's leading mortgage index is ramping up sharply as expected post-election and rate cuts. 

Anecdotally, the real estate phone lines are ringing a lot more keenly now.

And why wouldn't they be with 5-year fixed mortgage rates now available with a 2 handle and further rate cuts on the cards?


Off to the races?