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Tuesday, 19 June 2018

Rate hikes pushed out until 2020

OIS see no hikes imminent

The Reserve Bank released its Board Meeting Minutes today for June 2018. 

I noted here the other day that there was an addition in June relating to declining mortgage rates on outstanding loans. 

It was interesting to note that in today's release the wording was given a little tweak to add a bit more clarity, suggesting that mortgage rates on new housing are no longer falling. 


There was a bit of discussion about the positive impacts of immigration on the ageing population.

Australia has experienced strong population growth over the past decade.

Thanks to young migrants, notably the median age had declined in New South Wales and Victoria.

There was a murmur of excitement due to there being no direct reference to the next move in rates being up.

Not sure I'd read too much into that personally, although currency markets flickered a little!

There was also a reference to wages being 'low and stable' which isn't wording that exactly screams imminent tightening, although there is reportedly some evidence of wage pressures in parts of the economy. 

In any event, reality is dawning on financial markets, with RBA meeting overnight indexed swaps looking increasingly skinny and now not pricing in a hike until 2020. 


Source: Martin Whetton, ANZ

And a lot might change between now and 2020 - including the government.

As you were.