Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Saturday, 6 January 2018

Back-to-back deficits

Trade deficits resume

Oops! Well, economists had expected a solid trade surplus of $0.6 billion for November...in the event they got the $0.6 billion part right, unfortunately they forgot the minus symbol! 

There were also some hefty adverse revisions to earlier results, so alas the record rolling annual trade surplus is no more...


Exports generally held up well, being up by +0.4 per cent, although there was a negative contribution the ever-volatile gold export figures, together with a bit of temporary disruption to coal volumes shipped.

Bulk commodity prices have been a very strong run since October, so there isn't really too much to worry about here. 


The other more striking reason for the monthly deficit was an enormous surge in imports to New South Wales from China, helping total imports to surge +1.5 per cent to their highest ever level for a single month at $32.5 billion.

This isn't all bad news, then, relating to a strong uplift demand for consumer goods, and plant & equipment. 

With coal and LNG prices performing strongly, Queensland is set to record some hefty trade surpluses in 2018. 


Finally, the recovery in trade services appears to have lost just a bit of its sheen, the recent strength in the Aussie dollar being unlikely to help much here in early 2018. 


The wrap

Trade deficits are back, then, at least for the time being. 

With auto manufacturing drying up in Australia, it wouldn't be a surprise to see imports rising further in the year ahead.

Overall, though, in spite of the trade deficit there were plenty of positives to take from this, not least the strength of demand in Sydney, with the rising consumer & capital goods imports fitting the broader narrative of an improving economy.