Job vacancies resume downtrend
Job vacancies fell another 4½ per cent over the 3 months to February, to a seasonally adjusted 327,800.
Public sector vacancies actually increased again, but this was more than offset by a -5.4 per cent decline in private sector vacancies.
The weakest labour market is currently being experienced in Victoria, where job vacancies are down -15 per cent from a year earlier, with the resources states Western Australia and Queensland generally still showing more resilience.
Even at this stage in the cycle, there are still only around two unemployed persons per job vacancy, which is a pretty remarkable outcome, and largely thanks to a massive increase in hiring in healthcare, social assistance, and in public sector and other non-market roles.
However, there's also been a huge lift in the size of the Aussie labour force over the past year or two, and indeed of 1½ million over the past five years.
If historical patterns are any guide, we may well be set for an increase in the unemployment rate ahead, as labour supply outstrips demand.
Trump tariffs announced
Australia's trade balance on goods fell by $2 billion to around $3 billion in February, with the value of iron ore, coal, and natural gas exports all trending sharply lower.
It looks as though Australia's commodities windfall is over, with surging gold prices representing the only bright spot, as spooked investors seek a safe haven asset.
Tariff trades
The announcement of tariffs from the US has sent global markets into something of a state of turmoil.
With China bearing much of the brunt of the tariffs in the face of some very steep rates (now totalling 54 per cent) being announced, this is widely expected to be detrimental to growth prospects for Australia.
Ultimately, Trump is a realtor at heart, and one senses that he'd like to see monetary policy do more heavy lifting, and to end the reliance on the enormous trillion-dollar (and multi-trillion-dollar) deficits that we've grown increasingly accustomed to over the past decade-and-a-half.
If you were to think of it in the context of Trump wanting lower bond yields, then arguably the policies are working their magic immediately.
This does increase the risk of a US recession to something of a 50:50 call, which is obviously detrimental for consumers, and therefore potentially for equities markets.
Aussie bond yields were repriced sharply lower today, with markets pricing in an interest rate cut in May almost as a done deal.
Markets are now looking for another 3 or 4 interest rates in this cycle for Australia, but there's quite a lot of uncertainty about how things play out from here.
The 3-year bond yield is now trading at 3.57 per cent in Australia, down a further 16 basis points from yesterday.
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