The labour force figures were soft again for January.
Employment went backwards for a second month, with full-time employment declining by -43,300, and monthly hours worked falling -2.1 per cent.
The number of unemployed persons has been rising consistently now since October last year.
Overall, 523,200 unemployed is not yet a disaster, but the figure is set to rise now as the 325 basis points of monetary tightening flows through to mortgage repayments, and as the economy slows, with immigration running at record highs.
The unemployment rate dipped to below 3½ per cent in 2022, but the lows for the cycle look to have been around July to October last year.
The unemployment rate increased from 3.5 per cent to 3.7 per cent in January, but even this softer figure was flattered by another significant drop in the participation rate.
This mirrors what Roy Morgan Research also found, which was a spike in the unemployment rate last month to the highest level since March 2021.
The underutilisation rate increased again to 9.8 per cent, and with a surge of arrivals due in February we should expect the number of unemployed persons to rise over the remainder of 2023.
Forecasts under pressure
The Reserve Bank of Australia previously forecast that the unemployment rate would likely rise to around 3¾ per cent by the end of the year.
But we were pretty much there already in January, and the latest interest rate hikes haven't even had time to take hold yet,
Overall, the figures were much softer than market expectations, and bond yields dropped accordingly.
