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Thursday, 20 October 2022

Zero employment growth since June

Jobs engine stalls

Employment was flat again in September, with fewer than 1,000 added to total employment.

In fact, total employment has increased by only 528 persons - or basically zero - since June, as the labour market recovery loses momentum. 


Unemployment also increased by 8,800 to 499,400.

But since the derived unemployment rate came in at 3.544 per cent it just rounded down to 3.5 per cent in the official headline figure, for no change over the past month. 


Hours worked declined modestly over the month of September, partly due to Aussies taking holidays (rather than sick leave). 

Absence from employment though illness is now reverting towards normal levels.

The booming jobs growth over the year has thus run out of steam, with New South Wales adding +6,000 jobs over the past quarter, but Victoria shedding -23,000.


Notably the size of the labour force, having taken quite a knock, has now been increasing solidly again since July.

And with hundreds of thousands of new arrivals set to come into the country apace, we've probably seen the best of the jobs figures now, with wage pressures set to fade in the new year as skilled migrants arrive en masse

The economy is cooling of its own accord from here, and with strong disinflationary forces in the post there should be relatively little need for further tightening. 

James Foster with the detailed review here