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Wednesday, 17 November 2021

Wages growth stutters along

Wages still sluggish

Wages growth was somewhat disappointing, coming in at 0.6 per cent for the September quarter and 2.2 per cent for the year. 

Wages growth hasn't breached 3 per cent for a scarcely believable 34 quarters on the bounce now, and it's unlikely to turn on a dime. 

The result will be a disappointment to anyone expecting interest rate hikes any time this year or next, although at least wages growth is off the lows now.  


Public sector wages growth was just 1.66 per cent, which is significantly negative in real terms, after accounting for inflation. 

Remarkably, private sector wages growth of just 2.40 per cent was the strongest result in 6½ years. 


Tasmania was the strongest performer for the fourth quarter in a row, with the 2.7 per cent growth in the wages price index the best figure for the state since June 2013.

South Australia was the slowest at 1.8 per cent, but in truth there wasn't much to pick between the states and territories. 


Of course, lockdown restrictions were still in place in the third quarter, which may have muted the trends. 

And in real time, the lived experience seems to be that the costs of wages, and certain goods, materials, and services have jumped, at least for some Australians. 

However, today's figures back up the Reserve Bank's assertion that wage rises have not been uniform.

And in the end wages growth of 2.2 per cent is still very sluggish compared to the 3 to 4 per cent that would be preferable.

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More detailed analysis from data king James Foster here