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Tuesday, 19 January 2021

More Oz leavers than arrivals

Population outflows

The provisional December 2020 figures from the ABS showed more people leaving Australia than arriving.

There were an estimated 35,100 arrival trips in December, 17,800 of which were returning Australian citizens.

This is the highest monthly arrivals figure since the shutdowns began in April last year, with tens of thousands of expats still waiting to find a viable route home. 

However, there were an estimated 49,900 departure trips, more than 12,000 of whom were international students on temporary visas, largely returning to China, India, and other parts of Asia. 


Source: ABS

Even if net immigration was zero the population of Australia will still be grow by about +150,000 per annum or +0.5 per cent, due to deaths being lower than normal this year, and births continuing roughly as normal. 

But there will be some interesting compositional shifts, with fewer students and backpackers around (cf. the desperate student rentals and short-stay markets) and ultimately more returning expats.