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Tuesday, 18 June 2019

Charting the downturn (resi prices update to Q1 2019)

Charting the downturn

Over the year to March 2019 detached house prices across the 8 capital cities fell by 7.7 per cent, while attached dwellings fell 6.8 per cent, taking resi prices overall down by 7.4 per cent. 

The main influence was Sydney, where detached house prices fell 11 per cent, and attached dwelling prices were down by 8.8 per cent.

Melbourne followed a similar trend, with residential prices down 9.4 per cent over the year to March.

Underscoring the importance of cycles, if you pick September 2003 as your starting point (the inception of the ABS data series) then Sydney has been the weakest performing market with 81 per cent price growth, and Hobart was been the strongest at 139 per cent growth. 

Of course September 2003 marked Sydney's post-Olympics boom peak, so moving the start date back a few years would change the picture markedly. 

Nevertheless, it's interesting to note the resources state housing markets have behaved differently from rest. 

The mean dwelling price across Australia $636,900, down from $688,000 a year earlier.

That's a comparatively high figure in international terms, which is largely due to the fact that increasingly we choose to live in only three places: Greater Sydney, Greater Melbourne, and coastal south-east Queensland (from Noosa to the Tweed, incorporating Greater Brisbane).

There are lots of cheap places to live in Australia, of course, but fewer jobs and less infrastructure to support the notion. 

The preliminary estimated value of dwelling stock was $6,564,377,300,000, of which some $6.3 trillion or more than 95 per cent by stock value was owned in the hands of households. 

The wrap

Overall, dwelling prices fell across all eight capital cities in the March 2019 quarter as tight credit supply, a Royal Commission into banking and financial services misconduct, and election uncertainty bit hard. 

Expect to see further modest declines when the Q2 figures are released.

Since the election sentiment has been buoyed considerably, and prices are rising again in Sydney, with Melbourne set to follow suit.