Net immigration stabilises...at elevated levels

Net immigration stable

There were 77,410 permanent and long-term arrivals into Australia in November 2024, a very similar figure to November 2023.

Permanent and long-term departures were, very slightly, lower than a year ago. 

On a net basis, there was permanent and long-term immigration into Australia of around +447,000 over the year to November. 

The annual figure for net immigration appears to have stabilised of late.

Short-term resident returns also increased by 11 per cent over the past year.

The month of December tends to see a couple of million or more Aussie departures trekking overseas, and so this is generally a much quieter time for the housing market, but then the arrivals figures tend to come roaring back in January.

Australia's 2024 Population Statement projected population growth of +444,000 in 2025, as I looked at in a bit more detail here.

At the macro level, the housing shortage will thus likely worsen in 2025, given the comparatively slow rate of building.

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5. Work with me privately

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Unemployment rate lifts, a little, to 4pc

Part-time jobs burst

Australia's participation rate nudged to a record high in December, and this helped to lift the unemployment rate a bit, albeit only from a seasonally adjusted 3.93 per cent 3.98 per cent. 

As such, the reported unemployment rate rounded up from 3.9 per cent in November to 4 per cent in December.

Three states still had a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of under 4 per cent at the end of 2024, those being super-tight Western Australia (3.3 per cent), New South Wales (3.8 per cent), and Queensland (3.9 per cent).

The highest state unemployment rate was seen in Victoria (4.4 per cent). 

For the month of December, part-time employment increased by a massive +80,000, but full-time employment was reported as -23,700 lower. 

The net increase for the month overall was much chunkier than expected at +56,300, the recent trend in jobs gains also being mainly driven by strong hiring in Western Australia, New South Wales, and Queensland. 

There were some modest downwards revisions to previously reported figures, and the 3-month average employment gain slowed a little further to +32,000 (down from a recent high of +51,000 in September 2024).

Leading indicators suggest a more modest pace of hiring ahead. 

There was once again no deterioration at all in either the underemployment rate (6 per cent) or the underutilisation rate (10 per cent) in December. 

The Aussie dollar initially increased from 62.25 US cents to around 62.4 cents on these solid figures, but then later during the day's trade drooped lower again, to under 62 cents. 

Bond yields weren't dramatically moved through the day either, suggesting that markets are already rather more focussed on the quarterly inflation figures, which are due for release in January 29. 

---

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    2. Download our property buying guide

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Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

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Listen in to our podcasts

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By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

5. Work with me privately

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Korean BBQ

UK inflation falls...sighs of relief

It's a quiet time of year for news, to be honest, but let's take a quick look around the traps at what's been going on nonetheless.

In the UK, there was some welcome respite for an embattled Treasury and government, with the headline inflation rate unexpectedly falling to 2½ per cent in December. 

Bond markets have been getting absolutely smashed over recent months in Britain, putting the Chancellor at risk of breaking fiscal rules, potentially yet requiring an emergency Budget. 

Notably, services inflation - which has been running way too high - fell back from 5 per cent to 4.4 per cent over the year to December, and the government will no doubt be very grateful for some brighter news. 

The US headline inflation figure increased as expected to 2.9 per cent, but core inflation was slightly softer than expected, rounding down to 0.2 per cent for the month, and 3.2 per cent over the year.

After a torrid four months, there was a serious sigh of relief on UK markets, with the 10-year gilt yield easing 18 basis points lower. 

Aussie news

Back in Australia, engineering construction work done lifted by another 3.3 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms for the September quarter, powered largely by more public works and infrastructure activity.

Construction activity has been exceptionally strong in Queensland and Western Australia, arguably crowding out activity in the homebuilding space.

Work done for the public sector has steepled more than 13 per cent higher over the year, with the government maintaining high levels of investment and spending. 

Engineering construction work commenced also jumped by 13.6 per cent in the quarter, in original terms.

And, finally for today in Australia, skilled job vacancies eased by a further -2.5 per cent (or -5,400 job advertisements) to 214,600 in December 2024.

Skilled vacancies fell by -17.4 per cent over the course of calendar year 2024, with all states and territories seeing declines, and Victoria (-23.5 per cent) experiencing the sharpest drop.

Source: IVI, Australian Government

At the highs, in June 2022, there were more than 305,000 job advertisements on the equivalent skills vacancies index. 

Source: IVI, Australian Government

The most important news of the week for Australia will be released tomorrow morning, in the form of the latest Labour Force figures.

To date, the unemployment rate in Australia has remained remarkably low, but a number of other countries have found that when the tide turns, it turns quite quickly into a rip!

South Korea was the latest country to find this out the had way, with the latest unemployment figures released earlier today.

Source: Bloomberg

The reported unemployment rate jumped from 2.7 per cent to 3.7 per cent, which was the highest level in the 3½ years since June 2021, sparked in part by the disruption related to the political rows and temporary flirtation with martial law. 

---

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    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3¾ million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,800 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Job ads hold up in December

ANZ job ads steady

ANZ reported that job advertisements held the line in December, rising marginally by +0.3 per cent.

While job ads are well down from their highs of 2021 and 2022, they appear to have stabilised somewhat over recent months.

Major bank economists are split down the middle as to whether interest rates will be cut in February.

The answer to that conundrum may be found in the Labour Force figures for December, which are due to be released on Thursday morning.

In November the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to just 3.93 per cent. 

Other indicators of the labour market, on the other hand - such as the wage price index - suggest that tightness in the labour market has eased. 

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The US Producer Price Index surprised to the downside in December, with headline PPI coming in at 0.2 per cent for the month (versus 0.4 per cent expected), and core PPI coming in dead flat for the month.

Over the year, PPI advanced 3.3 per cent - versus 3.5 per cent expected. 

This was welcome news for bond yields, but there could yet be a sting in the tail for consumer price inflation, given that there was a marked jump in airfares in December. 

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Australia's population growth is easing, but the total estimated resident population has passed 27½ million.

The estimated population increase is now one additional person every 58 seconds - equating to around 500,000 persons annualised. 

The 2024 Population Statement predicts that population growth in 2024 will slow to around +444,000.

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

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    2. Download our property buying guide

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Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

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Listen in to our podcasts

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And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3¾ million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,800 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

5. Work with me privately

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2-Sense: Welcome back to property in 2025

2-Sense podcast

Batesy is back from his travels, and we're back on the airwaves for 2025, and making a few predictions for the year ahead. 

Tune in for all the latest property news and views here (or click on the image below):

You can also watch the YouTube video version here:

US unemployment rate FALLS to 4.1pc

US resilience continues

The US nonfarm payrolls figures whacked expectations, rising +256,000 in December with only modest downwards revisions to preceding months.

The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell back to 4.1 per cent (and underemployment measures tightened).

The growth in average hourly earnings was a bit lower than expected at +3.9 per cent over the year - and there were some debates about the strength or otherwise of full-time employment - but overall this was a much more solid than expected set of numbers. 

Markets are pricing just one interest rate cut in the US for 2025 as a result.

Meanwhile, there's some interesting stuff going on in UK bond markets again, since the new government came to power in July. 

A punishing combination of higher wages costs, steepling healthcare commitments, and expensive renewables have seen spending plans expanding.

The government is aiming to tackle funding challenges through VAT on private schools, an increase in employers' National Insurance taxes, and cuts to pensioner fuel allowances (capital gains taxes and alcohol could yet be in the firing line next). 

With the UK economy going backwards, 30 year gilt yields have soared to a level approaching 5½ per cent - higher than the level which embarrassed the previous government into a leadership change - leaving very little fiscal headroom, and there may need to be some spending cuts announced imminently to shore up markets. 

The falling pound is not helping either, as it may result in higher oil and petrol prices ahead for the UK.

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For Australia, the major bank economists are split on their outlook for monetary policy, with two expecting a rate cut in February (ANZ and Commonwealth Bank), and two (Westpac and NAB) expecting a delay until May. 

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

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    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3¾ million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,800 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Household spending comes back down to earth

Black Friday bounce

The ABS released a couple of data series this week, notably covering the 'Black Friday' sales period in November.

It had been expected that retail turnover would get a nice bump from the related promotions, and although retail turnover did rise +0.8 per cent over the month, this was a bit less than expected.

The ABS also made several references to widespread price discounting by retailers.

The Household Spending Indicator for November also rose in November, but only by +0.4 per cent, to be just +2.4 per cent higher over the year.

Population growth over the same period was likely around 2 per cent, so in real/per capita terms spending has apparently fizzled somewhat. 

James Foster's chart below shows how the 2024 iteration of Black Friday was more subdued than Black Friday version 2023. 

In other news, Australia's goods exports rebounded to $44 billion in November, but remain well down the euphoric 2022 highs. 

It's been an extraordinary few years for iron ore and especially coal, but prices and export values have come off considerably as China's economy has slumped. 

The Reserve Bank's Index of Commodity Prices is now down by more 35 per cent in US dollar terms from the heady peaks of 2022.

The one bright light for goods exports has been Aussie dollar gold, where export values have increased to record levels.

Investors traditionally use gold as a safe haven asset, to provide diversification, and to protect against inflation and economic crises.

And thus it has proven in this cycle, with the US dollar gold price surging from $1,800/oz in 2021 to record highs in a stellar 2024, while still trading around $2,700/oz in early 2025. 

The wrap

Although there have been ups and downs along the way, tighter monetary policy has been gradually working its way through the economy, including it seems for consumer spending.

ANZ brought forward its interest rate cut call to February, noting that Reserve Bank of Australia meetings will be 'live' from next month forth. 

I jotted a few related but cautionary thoughts with Courier Mail/Newscorp here. 

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

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    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3¾ million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,800 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Job vacancies hold the line

Job vacancies firm

Job vacancies are well down from the seasonally adjusted quarterly peak of around 474,000, according to the ABS, but held up well to post a reasonable rebound to 344,000 in the 3 months to November 2024.

That's still just over 50 per cent above the pre-pandemic level, despite a double-digit percentage decline through 2024. 

How so? And where?

In booming Queensland, mainly, where job vacancies increased all the way back up to 76,900.

The number of healthcare and social assistance job vacancies rose to 62,700 across Australia, more than double the pre-pandemic figure.

The enormous hiring into the healthcare sector has had a knock-on impact to vacancies in other sectors, such as hospitality, with retail trade job vacancies also rising to above 30,000, and accommodation and food vacancies jumping all the way back up to 38,000.

With 344,000 job vacancies for 595,300 unemployed people in November, this equates to a historically tight ratio of just 1.7 job vacancies per unemployed person. 

However, the size of the labour force has also swelled dramatically by more than 1½ million since the pre-pandemic period, so there's still a likelihood of rising unemployment through 2025.

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In other news the monthly inflation gauge came in at 2.4 per cent for the year to November, despite a wild rebound in electricity prices, as state-level subsidies continue to mangle the monthly figures.

The trimmed mean inflation figure declined from 3.5 per cent to 3.2 per cent since the preceding month.

Headline inflation for the fourth quarter looks set to be very soft, in part due to government subsidies, while the trimmed mean inflation result looks to be on track for a quarterly figure of about 0.6 per cent or thereabouts.

If that occurs, the two-quarter annualised rate for core inflation will be below 3 per cent, and as such with inflation no longer a barrier to easing, markets are pricing an interest rate cut next month as a 75 per cent likely.

Macquarie moved its call to a cut in February, with 75 basis points of easing priced in for 2025, though for the labour force figures continue to show robust results (as they did today!). 

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3¾ million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,800 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.