Pete Wargent blogspot

PERSONAL/BUSINESS COACH | PROPERTY BUYER | ANALYST

'Must-read, must-follow, one of the best analysts in Australia' - Stephen Koukoulas, ex-Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

'One of Australia's brightest financial minds, must-follow for accurate & in-depth analysis' - David Scutt, Markets & Economics Editor, Sydney Morning Herald.

'I've been investing 40 years & still learn new concepts from Pete; one of the best commentators...and not just a theorist!' - Michael Yardney, Amazon #1 bestseller.

Thursday 17 October 2024

Jobs data comes in hot!

14½ million employed

Jobs vacancies figures have held up well of late according to government data, and this translated to a +64,100 increase in employment in September 2024, seasonally adjusted.

Most of the employment gains were full-time, and there are now more than 14½ million employed Aussies for the first time. 


There was an odd blip around February/March - possibly a seasonality issue - but we've now had 6 solid jobs reports in a row.

Over the year, employment growth actually accelerated to +434,900 or +3.1 per cent. 


The participation rate is at a record high of 67.2 per cent, and the trend unemployment rate has remained steady at 4.1 per cent for the past 4 months.


Anecdotally there are working holidaymakers and backpackers everywhere in recent weeks - far more than a year ago - but this hasn't even made a dent in the underemployment statistics yet.


As always there were weaker components to the data - hours worked haven't kept pace for employment growth over the past 18 months, for example. 

But still, things are holding together well here, and now all of the focus will be turned onto the inflation figures due out later this month.  

It's notable that Australia's jobs market is holding up far, far better than that of New Zealand, or Canada, possibly due to more government spending and public sector hiring.

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

  1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.7 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Wednesday 16 October 2024

APP: Will the spring selling season slow our housing markets?

Property Podcast

I was joined by economist Eleanor Creagh of PropTrack to discuss the outlook for the spring selling season and what to watch out for next year.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

You can also watch the video version on YouTube here:

NZ reaches inflation target

Global inflation battle being won

New Zealand's inflation rate came in a bit lower than expected at 0.6 per cent, falling to 2.2 per cent over the year (down from 3.3 per cent last quarter).

That's the first time that NZ inflation has been withing the target range for 3 years, and the RBNZ is now free to cut interest rates hard to stave off a recession, starting to another 50 basis points cut next month.

Figures from Stats NZ suggest that more Kiwis are moving to Australia now for better employment opportunities. 


It won't just be New Zealand which sees big rata cuts over the next 6 to 12 months.

Canada's inflation rate also fell by more than expected to just 1.6 per cent, upping the chances of a 50 basis points interest rate cut next week.

The Eurozone inflation rate fell from 2.2 percent to 1.8 per cent, which was under the inflation target and clears the path for more easing. 

The UK inflation figure isn't released yet, but is expected to come in below the 2 per cent target for the firs time in 3 years.

Australia's inflation figures will be released on October 30, and should follow in a similar trajectory.

One slightly disappointing piece of news for Australia is that housing construction cost inflation picked up again last quarter, according to CoreLogic.


Construction costs have soared by over 30 per cent over the past half-decade, and more for units, in turn constraining supply.

As discussed further by Michael Matusik here.

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

  1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.7 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Tuesday 15 October 2024

ausbiz TV: Multi-speed property markets

ausbiz TV

I joined ausbiz TV to talk all the latest property market news here (or click on the image below):




Rental vacancies fall back to 1.2pc

Rental vacancies drop

Rental vacancies fell from 39,665 in August to 37,932 in September, according to SQM Research.

This represented a decline in the national rental vacancy rate from 1.3 per cent to just 1.2 per cent.

The declines were driven by Perth, Canberra, Hobart, and regional Australia.


Asking rents rose more modestly be +0.5 per cent over the month to be +5.4 per cent higher over the year.

The rental market seems likely to get very crowded towards the end of the year.

Louis Christopher, Managing Director of SQM Research said: 

“National rental vacancy rates fell slightly again in September, and we are expecting another fall in October. However, this will mainly be a seasonal change and so, we are not anticipating a reacceleration of rents for now, which have eased in recent month. 

However, the national rental market remains in severe shortage and barring some exceptions, is not expected to materially soften out of the rental crisis for some years. Ongoing strong migration growth, initially forecasted by SQM to materially slow in 2024 towards Federal Budget targets, has not materially slowed. 

Total population expansion for this current calendar year is now expected to be higher than 500,000 people; and so, this rapid population growth will continue to keep pressure on the rental market.” 

You can read SQM's full media release here.

The Housing Industry Association reported that new home sales remained depressed last month, keeping supply tight:



Source: HIA

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

  1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.7 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Sunday 13 October 2024

Temp visas to hit 3 million in December

Visas to hit 3 million

Rental vacancy rates have eased a little over recent months, rising from around 1 per cent to 1.3 per cent at the national level.

I wonder, though, how things will pan out in the December quarter.

As at August there were 2.74 million temporary visa holders in Australia, and a record 2.44 million excluding the 300,000 visitors. 

Student visas rose to a new record high of 679,293.


Total international students hit a new record of close to 1 million this year.

At a ratio of around 1.4 international student enrolments for each temporary visa, this gets us back to the record high of 679,000 student visas. 


Around 175,000 international students are from China, creating a pathway for more Chinese investment in Australia.

In the December quarter visitor visas will likely rise to around 650,000, implying that there will likely be over 3 million temporary visa holders in Australia. 

Of course a lot of that demand will go into hotels and Airbnb properties.

But given there are only around 39,000 rental vacancies at this quieter time of year, things could get very tight again later in the year.

2-Sense: Tectonic plates shifting globally

2-Sense

Some changes in the landscape of late, which Bates and I discussed on the 2-Sense podcast.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):


You can also watch the YouTube version here:


---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

  1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.7 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Saturday 12 October 2024

Inflation, at any price

Inflation disappoints

I'm still slightly smarting from an extraordinarily expensive trip to the US, which was periodically peppered with the newsreels announcing the glorious victory over inflation by partisan academic economists.

Of course, while the inflation rate may indeed be lower, price levels for working folks are excruciatingly higher than they were 4 years ago, a point neatly side-stepped by commentators cheering hard for a Harris-Walz election victory. 

In the event, inflation disappointed to the upside in September, rising by more than expected at +0.2 per cent for the month, and +2.4 per cent for the year (albeit this was the lowest annual headline inflation rate since February 2021). 

The US inflation target is lower than that of Australia, at 2 per cent. 

More concerningly, the core inflation figure rose by more than expected at +0.3 per cent, to pick up the pace to +3.3 per cent over the year.


Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

At least the spike in freight costs has reversed, with prices falling again there.

Rates to fall anyway

Part of the reason that the US consumer economy has continue to rampage along has been the enormous deficits being run on an ongoing basis. 

With a national debt of US$35 trillion and rising fast, and a gross interest bill steepling to US$1 trillion in 2024, interest rates practically have to come down regardless of the inflation rate tracking above inflation.

Markets are pricing for a 25 basis points cut in November, and another 25 basis points cut in December.

Get you hedge in

I think the following point is implicit in a lot of what I've written over the years, but it's worth reiterating anyway.

With developed economies running up such massive government debt balances deflation will be avoided at all costs - even by dropping money from proverbial helicopters if needs be - and you simply must get your inflation hedge in.

A look at the world inflation graph since the US came off the gold standard in 1971, effectively ending the Bretton Woods agreement, underscores the point.


Setting money on fire!

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

  1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.7 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.