ausbiz TV: Multi-speed property markets

ausbiz TV

I joined ausbiz TV to talk all the latest property market news here (or click on the image below):

Rental vacancies fall back to 1.2pc

Rental vacancies drop

Rental vacancies fell from 39,665 in August to 37,932 in September, according to SQM Research.

This represented a decline in the national rental vacancy rate from 1.3 per cent to just 1.2 per cent.

The declines were driven by Perth, Canberra, Hobart, and regional Australia.

Asking rents rose more modestly be +0.5 per cent over the month to be +5.4 per cent higher over the year.

The rental market seems likely to get very crowded towards the end of the year.

Louis Christopher, Managing Director of SQM Research said: 

“National rental vacancy rates fell slightly again in September, and we are expecting another fall in October. However, this will mainly be a seasonal change and so, we are not anticipating a reacceleration of rents for now, which have eased in recent month. 

However, the national rental market remains in severe shortage and barring some exceptions, is not expected to materially soften out of the rental crisis for some years. Ongoing strong migration growth, initially forecasted by SQM to materially slow in 2024 towards Federal Budget targets, has not materially slowed. 

Total population expansion for this current calendar year is now expected to be higher than 500,000 people; and so, this rapid population growth will continue to keep pressure on the rental market.” 

You can read SQM's full media release here.

The Housing Industry Association reported that new home sales remained depressed last month, keeping supply tight:

Source: HIA

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.7 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Temp visas to hit 3 million in December

Visas to hit 3 million

Rental vacancy rates have eased a little over recent months, rising from around 1 per cent to 1.3 per cent at the national level.

I wonder, though, how things will pan out in the December quarter.

As at August there were 2.74 million temporary visa holders in Australia, and a record 2.44 million excluding the 300,000 visitors. 

Student visas rose to a new record high of 679,293.

Total international students hit a new record of close to 1 million this year.

At a ratio of around 1.4 international student enrolments for each temporary visa, this gets us back to the record high of 679,000 student visas. 

Around 175,000 international students are from China, creating a pathway for more Chinese investment in Australia.

In the December quarter visitor visas will likely rise to around 650,000, implying that there will likely be over 3 million temporary visa holders in Australia. 

Of course a lot of that demand will go into hotels and Airbnb properties.

But given there are only around 39,000 rental vacancies at this quieter time of year, things could get very tight again later in the year.

2-Sense: Tectonic plates shifting globally

2-Sense

Some changes in the landscape of late, which Bates and I discussed on the 2-Sense podcast.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

You can also watch the YouTube version here:

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.7 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Inflation, at any price

Inflation disappoints

I'm still slightly smarting from an extraordinarily expensive trip to the US, which was periodically peppered with the newsreels announcing the glorious victory over inflation by partisan academic economists.

Of course, while the inflation rate may indeed be lower, price levels for working folks are excruciatingly higher than they were 4 years ago, a point neatly side-stepped by commentators cheering hard for a Harris-Walz election victory. 

In the event, inflation disappointed to the upside in September, rising by more than expected at +0.2 per cent for the month, and +2.4 per cent for the year (albeit this was the lowest annual headline inflation rate since February 2021). 

The US inflation target is lower than that of Australia, at 2 per cent. 

More concerningly, the core inflation figure rose by more than expected at +0.3 per cent, to pick up the pace to +3.3 per cent over the year.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

At least the spike in freight costs has reversed, with prices falling again there.

Rates to fall anyway

Part of the reason that the US consumer economy has continue to rampage along has been the enormous deficits being run on an ongoing basis. 

With a national debt of US$35 trillion and rising fast, and a gross interest bill steepling to US$1 trillion in 2024, interest rates practically have to come down regardless of the inflation rate tracking above inflation.

Markets are pricing for a 25 basis points cut in November, and another 25 basis points cut in December.

Get you hedge in

I think the following point is implicit in a lot of what I've written over the years, but it's worth reiterating anyway.

With developed economies running up such massive government debt balances deflation will be avoided at all costs - even by dropping money from proverbial helicopters if needs be - and you simply must get your inflation hedge in.

A look at the world inflation graph since the US came off the gold standard in 1971, effectively ending the Bretton Woods agreement, underscores the point.

Setting money on fire!

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.7 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

7 useful mental models for property investing

Bonus episode

Cate and I decided to record a bonus episode on our Buy Right property podcast, on the subject of 7 useful mental models for property investing.

I enjoyed this one a lot.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

You can get a copy of our book here, or at Amazon or in all good bookstores and airport stores (or click on the image below):

State of the Markets live

Livestream chat

Our state of the markets live chats are always very popular. 

I joined Owen Rask for our latest State of the Markets livestream, which you can watch back here:

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.7 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

New dwelling starts fall to just 40k

New home starts drop

New dwelling starts fell -1.1 per cent in the June quarter to just 40,293, seasonally adjusted. 

In particular starts for units and apartments were extremely weak, falling to 13,756 to be -12.3 per cent lower over the year, with construction sector insolvencies running at record highs.

The number of new dwellings under construction has been in steady decline for the past two years now.

There were about 88,000 houses under construction as at June 2024, down from around 105,000 at the cycle highs. 

New dwelling approvals in Sydney - especially for new unit projects - are not translating to new project starts, pointing to a chronic undersupply over the next few years as hot immigration combines with a steady return to city office work.

There was a bit of an uplift to completions in the three most populous states, albeit this only lifted total completions to 44,850, a long way short of the desired 60,000 per quarter.

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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the cash rate by 50 basis points from a 15-year high of 5.25 per cent to 4.75 per cent in a bid to stave off messy recessionary conditions:

I don't think Australia is immune to excess capacity, and we won't be too far behind.