Pete Wargent blogspot


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Wednesday, 12 February 2020

The recession Wuhan to have?

Negative growth

G'day from Singapore, where I'm wearing a rather fetching facemask.

Amazing chart from Robert 'the ledge' Rennie at Westpac, depicting Australia's collapsing bulk exports: 

Source: Westpac

This dreadful trend clearly points towards negative growth in the economy in the first quarter of 2020, and the cash rate looks let to fall to record lows this year. 

Will things bounce back in Q2?

Some economists thinks so.

It's too early to say, really, but the longer the travel ban endures the more painful it will be. 

There have been reports of fewer new cases of the coronavirus, sending iron ore spot prices soaring, but whether or not such reports are reliable given the drift of the measurement criteria is another question. 


Commonwealth Bank's half-year results were somewhat better than expected sending the stock valuation to the moon.

Very little sign of mortgage stress as expected:

Source: ASX

Disclosure: still holding, but planning to sell!

The Reserve Bank noted last week how mortgage stress has been benign, while more borrowers were now seen to be paying down debt faster.

Expect Westpac will also report very low arrears and loss rates.

Back in Noosa tomorrow.