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Thursday, 5 September 2019

WA exports storm to record high

Export boom

Another monster month for iron ore exports with A$9 billion FOB booked in July...bazinga!


The 62% Fe iron ore spot price was back above $91/tonne yesterday, too, so the budget bonanza continues apace. 

This helped to send the annual value of Aussie exports up to $478 billion, up from $409 billion a year earlier.


There was a welcome 3 per cent monthly rebound in imports, but even still there was another prodigious $7 billion surplus in July. 


The trade services balance is swinging out of deficit after a long time between drinks, and the lower Aussie dollar has generally boosted tourism too (although the boom in Chinese visitors appears to have peaked).  


Western Australia recorded an all-comers record of $17 billion for merchandise exports in July, sending the state's ex-services trade surplus to the moon. 


Quiet on the home front

So there you have it: the exports phase of the mining boom is delivering exactly what Australia wanted, with the annual value of exports rapidly approaching $½ trillion.  

It's the domestic economy that's been gummed up by high taxes, stymied credit, a Royal Commission into banking misconduct, an election campaign which apparently promised billions in new taxes, and an ensuing lack of consumer confidence. 

Tax and interest rate cuts are coming, and lending seems to be making a tentative comeback.

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ANZ has updated its cash rate call to bottom out at just 0.25 per cent by May 2020.