Pete Wargent blogspot

PERSONAL/BUSINESS COACH | PROPERTY BUYER | ANALYST

'Must-read, must-follow, one of the best analysts in Australia' - Stephen Koukoulas, ex-Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

'One of Australia's brightest financial minds, must-follow for accurate & in-depth analysis' - David Scutt, Markets & Economics Editor, Sydney Morning Herald.

'I've been investing 40 years & still learn new concepts from Pete; one of the best commentators...and not just a theorist!' - Michael Yardney, Amazon #1 bestseller.

Sunday, 8 September 2019

Population clock to whizz past 25,500,000

Big Australia

Later in the month the Aussie population clock will whizz past 25,500,000.

If you were thinking that it was only recently that 'Australia 25 million' was in the headlines, you'd be right - the population is expanding at near-record highs of more than 400,000 per annum, mainly into Greater Sydney, Melbourne, and south-east Queensland. 

You can click on the two charts below to expand them:


That's one heck of an increase from 20 million in 2004.

The Coalition is acutely aware that this rampant population growth has become a point of concern for the electorate, and claims to have cut the permanent intake to a little over 160,000 per annum. 

But this narrative masks natural population increase of about 156,000 per annum, as well as the other ways in which the population can grow faster.

For example, the number of bridging visas issued for those awaiting permanent residency jumped by almost 30,000 to about 205,000 over the 2019 financial year, representing a doubling over the past four financial years.

Education arrivals are also tracking at record highs, and it wouldn't be a surprise if many international students remain in Australia on sundry visas types. 

The annual total of permanent and long-term arrivals surged to a record 851,000 in FY 2019, up from 710,000 only four years earlier. 


Earlier studies by the ABS also showed that some 80 per cent of 'permanent' departees end up returning to Australia within a year. 

Pent-up demand

Commentators have been taken aback by the speed of the housing market turnaround, and it's been driven by pent-up demand from homebuyers rather than investors (although investors are now returning now they scent growth, as we'll see in the forthcoming housing finance figures in the next few months).

Surveys show that most Aussies still aspire to home ownership, and after two years of stymied credit the homebuyers are coming back. 

The first homebuyer deposit scheme for qualifying buyers with only a 5 per cent deposit will become effective from 1 January.