Investor credit pulse is picking up, despite sellers

Solid credit growth

Business credit growth was very solid in August at 0.7 per cent for the month, and 7.7 per cent for the year. 

Total credit growth for the Aussie economy was 5.7 per cent over the year.

Surprisingly, property investor credit growth was 0.44 per cent in August, and increased to 3.9 per cent over the year...despite a lot of property investors exiting the market.

As such, total housing credit growth was 5 per cent over the year, for the highest annual level in 15 months.

Housing credit growth was reported as being 'weaker' at 0.4 per cent in August, but at 0.448 per cent this was a tiny fraction away from rounding up to 0.5 per cent (essentially, there was very little change from the July figure).

Housing prices have slowed a little of late as the spring selling season brings new supply online, yet the housing credit impulse remains very solid ahead of looming interest rate drops. 

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.7 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

2-Sense: Housing affordability smoked through the pandemic

2-Sense podcast

Is negative gearing reform back on the table?

I discussed this and much more with Chris Bates at the Australian Property Podcast this week.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

You can also watch the Youtube version here:

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.7 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Job vacancies in accelerated decline

Vacancies with a chunky drop

After declining by 3½ per cent in the May 2024 quarter, job vacancies fell by a chunky -5.2 per cent in the August 2024 quarter to a seasonally adjusted 329,900. 

Job vacancies were down -17 per cent over the past year, and have dropped by a record -143,200 since the highs, for a drop of more than -30 per cent.

Vacancies are now at their lowest level since February 2021, and are apparently accelerating lower.

New South Wales and Victoria account for the most job vacancies, and both were down -17 per cent over the year, with Victoria looking to be copping the worst of it.

Western Australia and South Australia are also going backwards fast now, with only Queensland recording a quarterly increase in positions available.

It's still early days for this cycle, with the number of unemployed persons per job vacancy increasing from a record low of 1.08 to 1.9 persons this quarter.

Still historically low, then, but clearly heading higher now.

The key point is that the size of Australia's labour force has exploded from 13.7 million at the onset of the pandemic to 15.1 million today.

An extra 1.4 million persons in the labour force means that as a share of the total labour force job vacancies aren't nearly as high as they might first appear. 

In fact, with redundancies accelerating the unemployment rate may be heading to 5 per cent in due course.

Supercharged immigration was how Canada wound up with an unemployment rate at 6.6 per cent, after all, while New Zealand is at 4.6 per cent and rising fast into nasty recessionary conditions. 

Australia superficially looks to be in a much healthier position, but the warning signs are there.

Big Picture podcast

Big Picture Podcast

I joined Michael Yardney on the Big Picture podcast to discuss all the latest property news.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

You can also catch the recording on YouTube here:

Monthly inflation indicator falls to 2.7pc over the year

Inflation is easing

In the USA this week, so blog posting is a little sporadic.

Median market forecasts were spot on for the monthly inflation indicator in August.

Which is to say, monthly inflation was slightly negative, helped lower by energy bill relief and lower fuel prices. 

Headline inflation dropped sharply from 3.5 per cent to 2.7 per cent over the year to August, the lowest reading in the 3 years since August 2021. 

There was plenty of gnashing of teeth about the impact of subsidies, but trimmed mean inflation also fell back from 3.8 per cent to 3.4 per cent, for a 2½ year low,

Source: ABS

Treasurer Chalmers called a celebratory media conference, and the government was pleased to put out a few releases to celebrate the moment of headline inflation falling back into the target range,

Rent inflation was still running hot on these figures, but in the real world asking rents have now eased.

Similarly new dwelling costs have continued to contribute to inflation, though it feels like this should ease up soon.

There was also a chunky contribution from sin taxes on alcohol and tobacco, but this should arguably be excluded. 

The good news is that fuel prices have fallen significantly through September, so inflation will continue to ease from here, probably much closer to 2 per cent next month with a helping hand from the base effect.

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.7 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

RBA on hold, moves a tad more neutral

RBA on hold

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates on hold, as expected, at 4.35 per cent.

There wasn't too much dovish rhetoric delivered today.

Inflation remains above target, and although wage price pressures have eased, there are challenges around productivity, and returning inflation to target remains the priority...and so on.

That said, the fact that a hike wasn't explicitly considered perhaps represents something of a move to a neutral bias.

There was a move of around 10 basis points from the highs of the day for the 3-year bond yield.

The ABS releases the monthly inflation figures for August later in the week.

The median market forecast is for headline inflation to slow all the way down to just 2.7 per cent over the year - partly thanks to government subsidies - but with core inflation remaining well above target.

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.7 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

2-Sense: Back the office, say Amazon & Tabcorp

2-Sense

Some cracking news stories this week, and I ran through them all with Chris Bates here (or click on the image below):

You can catch the YouTube version here:

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.7 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Population growth passes the peak

Rapid population growth

Over the year to March 2024, Queensland saw net inbound interstate migration of +31,000 (the inverse of the net -31,000 outbound interstate migration from New South Wales).

It looks like the interstate exodus has moderated towards historic norms now, which makes sense at this point in the cycle.

Net interstate migration for Victoria has, meanwhile, turned slightly positive, as some of the pandemic refugees return home, while Western Australia mopped up the rest of the interstate movers over the year to March.

Net overseas migration was a huge +510,000 over the year, still about +18,000 higher than a year earlier.

These are obviously still extremely high numbers...but it does at least look as though the peak of population growth has now passed. 

Over the year to March, the estimated resident population increased by +619,000, down from the record annual growth of +667,000 six months earlier. 

This slight slowdown clipped about -40,000 from the Aussie population clock, and puts the estimated resident population today at around 27.4 million.

Totting this all up equates to enormous annual population growth for New South Wales (+167,700), Victoria (+184,000), and Queensland (+135,00), while Western Australia's population growth rate was a ferocious +3.1 per cent.

On the way down from here, then, but still rather too high for comfort from the government's perspective. 

Unemployment rate remains at 4.2pc

Jobs market holding strong

Total employed persons was reported at a new 'high of 14,458,600 for August.

Those with an eagle eye will note that this was actually lower than the 14,469,000 reported last month, but after revisions to earlier figures this was reported as a monthly increase for August of +47,500.

Over the year, the increase was +455,400 or a very strong +3.2 per cent.

All of the increases this month were reported as part-time, while full-time employment fell.

Looking through the noise, the 3-month average increase in employment was a bit lower than was reported last month, but still very solid at +48k.

As correctly anticipated by Westpac, the unemployment rate fell slightly over the month, although at 4.16 per cent the figure still rounded off to 4.2 per cent.

The cycle low was extremely tight, at below 3½ per cent in mid-2022, and we've been trending higher since then.

The underemployment rate increased modestly over the month from 6.3 per cent to 6.5 per cent.

The wrap

Hiring continues at very solid levels, overall, despite the very sluggish economy.

The government has come under a fair bit of fire for its loose spending habits, and this has translated to a marked expansion in the number of public sector and healthcare roles. 

After the Federal Reserve cut US interest rates by ½ percentage point yesterday, this was a carefully watched release.

The labour market is still gradually weakening - albeit only slowly - and SEEK reported that applications per job advertisement were the second highest on record last month.

Nevertheless, these figures remained very solid, and CBA pushed out its forecast for a first interest rate cut from November to December 2024, and even that looks a little too dovish. 

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.7 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Inflation rates with a 2-handle (Fed cuts by 50bps)

Central banks on top

Just got our business PI renewal through this week, with the quoted premium coming back with a lazy 100 per cent increase.

Some of that was due to a higher turnover, but by no means all of it!

Yes, there's been plenty of services price inflation in Australia over recent times, even if much of it is in the rear-view mirror now. 

Over recent days, though, we've seen headline inflation rates for August reported for the Eurozone at 2.2 per cent, for the UK at 2.2 per cent, and for Canada at just 2 per cent. 

The UK figure statistics retained enough stickiness in services prices inflation to have the Bank of England likely keeping interest rates on hold this month, but the Bank of Canada could be delivering larger rate cuts on this evidence.

With the headline inflation at 2½ per cent in the US, Federal Reserve cut the funds rate today by a percentage point, with a couple more cuts priced in before the end of the year.

There's a giant mountain of debt maturing in the US imminently, and although the economy has held up pretty well there's a huge incentive to get interest rates down as soon as possible. 

Plus, the rising unemployment rate is also now a worry, and the Fed's dot plot now points to 8 interest rate cuts from the peak through 2025, which is more aligned with market expectations.

Aus late to the party

As you can see in the above chart, Australia's journey with battling inflation back down has some way further to run.

That said, next week, partly thanks to government subsidies, the monthly inflation gauge is expected to be negative, taking the annual inflation reading down to 2.7 per cent, with further declines to come as fuel prices fall at the pump.

The Reserve Bank should reasonably be expected to draw attention to core inflation figures, while looking through the impact of energy bill relief. 

Market pricing has Australia's cash rate target falling to around 3 per cent over the next 18 months, from 4.35 per cent today. 

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.7 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

ausbiz: Property around the traps

Vacancies fall slightly

SQM Research released its latest vacancy rates figures for the month of August 2024.

There were declines in vacancy rates over the month in Sydney, Adelaide, and Perth, while Canberra continues to have the highest capital city rental vacancy rate at 2.2 per cent.

Source: SQM Research

While Perth, Adelaide, and Darwin continue to have very tight rental markets, over the past few months there have been some signs of an easing in the rental pressures as average household sizes have adjusted higher.

Smoothing the past 6 months of data suggests a gentle uptrend for most capital cities, except perhaps for seasonally more volatile Darwin. 

You can click to enlarge the image:

Nationally, asking rents rose by +0.4 per cent over the month, and +6.5 per cent over the year, with some variations around the country.

Louis Christopher of SQM Research reported that there remains a severe shortage of rental properties, but with the market having adjusted the days of 10 to 20 per cent rental price inflation are now likely to be behind us.

You can read the full media release from SQM Research here.

ausbiz TV

In other news, I discussed all around the property news around the traps in 6 mins with Nadine Blayney on ausbiz TV.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):