Australian property 2023 year in review (plus 3 things to watch in 2024)

2024 outlook...

Rask and I took a look back at 2023, and the outlook for 2024 here (or click on the image below):

There's a video version here:

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust in 2023 – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan for 2023 - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show is also available on Spotify.

3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

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4. Work with me privately

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How to do a property due diligence

Australian Property Podcast

There were further steep declines in bond yields this week.

US 30-year mortgage rates have fallen very sharply, signaling an upturn for the housing market in 2024.

The UK has seen government bond yields falling dramatically, with the 10-year yield down to just 3.4 per cent.

The 2-year gilt yield has now fallen under 4 per cent, suggesting a sharp round of rate cut next year.

Australia's 3-year bond yield has dropped to 3.6 per cent, far below the cash rate target.

Mortgage rates will fall here too, but probably not significantly so until the second half of 2024, allowing homebuyers "a window of opportunity" over the next 6 months (in CoreLogic's words, not mine).

This week on the pod, Amy and I discussed how to do a property due diligence like a pro.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust in 2023 – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan for 2023 - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show is also available on Spotify.

3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.4 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,300 followers. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here.

2-Sense Xmas episode (video version)

2-Sense Xmas video

Merry Xmas from Batesy and I, and the team at the Australian Property Podcast.

We hit 30,000 unique listeners for the first time this month...tune in here:

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust in 2023 – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan for 2023 - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show is also available on Spotify.

3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.4 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,300 followers. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here.

Aussie workers still taking the gloom out of Zoom?

2-Sense

I joined Batesy for the final pre-Xmas episode of 2-Sense to rip through the big 3 property news stories making the news this week.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust in 2023 – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan for 2023 - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show is also available on Spotify.

3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.4 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,300 followers. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here.

Housing credit beginning to accelerate now

Acceleration!

Housing credit growth picked up for a 4th consecutive month in November to 0.43 per cent, and is now rising over the year. 

The credit impulse for housing in now accelerating.

Housing price growth has run ahead of expectations all year, due to very low supply. 

Investor credit growth remained very sluggish at 0.26 per cent in November (as it has been all year).

The rental crisis will continue to worsen on these kind of numbers - it's just been made too hard and too unattractive to be an investor over the past decade so rental vacancies are heading to all-time lows. 

Overall credit growth over the year slowed marginally to 4.67 per cent. 

With low supply and record high population growth, the outlook for property in 2024 is generally optimistic, with interest rates and lending likely to become a bit easier in the second half of next year. 

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust in 2023 – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan for 2023 - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show is also available on Spotify.

3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.4 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,300 followers. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here.

BoE to cut up to 6 times as inflation drops away

Inflation declining fast

UK prices actually declined in the month of November, as such helping inflation to once again fall faster than expected, dropping to 3.9 per cent over the year.

At the peak inflation was above 11 per cent, but is now at the lowest level in more than 2 years. 

Source: James Foster

The Eurozone has seen inflation fall even further, down to just 2.4 per cent by November.

Australia is obviously further behind on this journey, though the experience of other countries seemingly augurs well here. 

The 2-year gilt yield in the UK has fallen to 4.1 per cent, down from recent highs of 5½ per cent, with the Bank of England potentially expected to cut by up to 6 times in 2024. 

Australia's 3-year bond yield briefly touched the lowest level in more than six months, at 3.6 per cent, while in the US the average 30-year mortgage rates fell to the lowest level since June at 6.8 per cent. 

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust in 2023 – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan for 2023 - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show is also available on Spotify.

3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.4 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,300 followers. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here.

Red Sea assaults present a renewed threat...

Hiring normalises

Labour market dynamics are normalising quite significantly now. 

In July 2022 it was chronically difficult for recruiters to find staff, but for the past 18 months it's become progressively easier to hire. 

Personally I reckon that some of the unemployment forecasts are too optimistic and we'll be heading back to 5 per cent sooner than we think.

Nevertheless, hiring activity has held up pretty well to date. 

Source: Jobs & Skills Australia

Red Sea risks

The global inflation picture has improved markedly over the past few months.

One potentially risk area for global trade relates to shipping vessel missile and drone attacks in the Red Sea, which has seen BP halting the shipping of oil and gas through the region, and many large firms opting to avoid the Red Sea through diverting ships elsewhere. 

If the Red Sea and the Suez Canal were to become no-go areas for commercial shipping this would serious reignite supply concerns. 

With an election looming you can bet that the US will be deploying significant forces and resources to counter these attacks.

Markets don't seem too perturbed at the moment, but it's certainly one to watch.

Indeed, with interest rates expected to fall next year, it wouldn't be a surprise to see global stock indexes pushing to fresh highs soon. 

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Stellar returns from tech stocks may result in superannuation balances lifting by around 9 per cent in 2023. 

Not a bad year in the end!

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When adjusting for seasonality, Sydney's residential vacancy rates took another tumble in November on the REINSW's data.

Justin Fabo of Antipodean Macro with the graph, showing home vacancy rates in inner Sydney have driven the recent declines. 

The vacancy rate is closing in on the global financial crisis lows of around 1 per cent.

I was living in Sydney's eastern suburbs at the time and 30 to 50 per cent increases in rental renewals popped out in barbeque conversation all too regularly. 

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust in 2023 – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan for 2023 - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show is also available on Spotify.

3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.4 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,300 followers. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here.

Working from home numbers ease

Working from home persists

Before the pandemic in August 2019, 32.1 per cent of the Aussie employed worked from home regularly.

By August 2021, a period within which much of the country was locked down, this figure went to an unprecedented 40.3 per cent.

By August this year, we were gradually easing back down to 36.9 per cent, but still well above the pre-pandemic level. 

Source: ABS

For now at least the unemployment rate is below 4 per cent, so employees very much retain the upper hand in such a tight labour market.

This dynamic will begin to shift back in 2024, with the unemployment rate expected to tick up to 4½ per cent by the middle of the year, and net immigration running at very high levels. 

More employers will almost certainly look to link bonuses and promotions to office attendance next year.

In London developers in the Square Mile are busy making big bets on the long term return to the office, and in Australia too there are some major office projects slated in the big capital cities.

For now, however, many managers and professionals are still regularly working form home, for at least some of the week. 

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust in 2023 – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan for 2023 - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show is also available on Spotify.

3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.4 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,300 followers. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here.

2-Sense: Traffic, traffic, everywhere...time to stop and think?

2-Sese

This week on the Australian Property Podcast, Batesy and I discuss the Rozelle Interchange traffic disaster, the Fed pivot, and tweaks to population policy.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

You can also watch the video version here (or click below):

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust in 2023 – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan for 2023 - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show is also available on Spotify.

3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.4 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,300 followers. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here.

Property to power on in 2024

Property forecasts

Proptrack's property forecasts for 2024, predict prices gains of 2-5 per cent for Sydney, 3 to 6 per cent for Brisbane, and 5-8 per cent for Perth.

There are declines expected in Darwin, Hobart, and possibly in Canberra. 

Source: Proptrack

Forecasts have generally been too bearish, in my opinion.

Firstly because lending is so tight that nothing much is going to get built at today's prices, turning the rental market into a modern version of the Hunger Games.

And secondly because global markets are sensing a peak in the interest rate cycle, with interest rates expected to fall over the next couple of years. 

There's no good reason now why lending is being restricted with a 3 percentage points assessment buffer - if anything a massive shortage of housing adds to financial stability risks later. 

This is a Goldilocks scenario for asset prices, including stock markets around the world, which will very likely pump to fresh highs in 2024.

CBA expects the unemployment rate to revert to 4 per cent by mid-2024 - following indicators such as Roy Morgan's survey and SEEK job advertisements - but Australia is expected to avoid a damaging recession. 

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust in 2023 – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan for 2023 - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show is also available on Spotify.

3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.4 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,300 followers. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here.

Population growth at record high +624,100 in FY2023

Record population growth

Annual population growth in Australia ran at a record +624,100 in the 2023 financial year, or +2.4 per cent. 

Source: ABS

Internally and within Australia, recent times have largely been about a return to capital city dominance.

The 2020 and 2021 net interstate migration surge out of Victoria has ended now, and may even prove to be reversing a little. 

Queensland (+32,250) and Western Australia (+11,650) continued to attract the most net interstate migrants over the course of the financial year.

In terms of the fastest rate of growth, Western Australia led the way with a thumping +3.1 per cent full-on population boom across the financial year, in a distant echo of the resources construction boom years. 

Year-on-year population growth was also extremely high in Victoria (+181,800), New South Wales (+172,600), and Queensland (+138,500). 

The estimated growth in the resident population has slowed slightly - if slowed is the right word - to around 1,728 per day, suggesting that the estimated resident population will be around 26,950,000 by the end of the year. 

That's a little bit lower than previous estimates, but essentially back on the pre-pandemic trend. 

Of course, population growth of +624,100 is still a huge number, and it makes the Treasury estimates for net overseas migration declining to +375,000 in FY2024 seem a trifle...um, optimistic. 

In the meanwhile, red hot population growth continues. 

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust in 2023 – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan for 2023 - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show is also available on Spotify.

3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.4 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,300 followers. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here.

Unemployment rate rises to 18-month high of 3.9pc

Unemployment rate jumps

Employment was far stronger than expected in November, rising by +61,500 to an all-time high of 14¼ million, and almost all accounted for by full-time jobs in the month.

There had been some expectation that employment growth might slow after hiring for 'The Voice' referendum was unwound, but in fact there's been no discernible slowdown in hiring at all as yet. 

This while yields are tanking all over the place - and markets have rushed to price in six interest rate cuts for the US next year - Australia will be in no rush to follow suit. 

That having been said, with the population surging and the participation rate rising to a record high 67.2 per cent, Australia's unemployment rate increased from 3.7 per cent to 3.9 per cent, which is the highest level in 18 month. 

The under-utilisation rate also climbed from 10.1 per cent to 10.4 per cent, which was also a 21-month high. 

Confirming that the labour market is not as tight as it has been, hours worked barely increased in the month, and are lower than their highs of April 2023. 

Source: ABS

Overall, a pretty tidy result, although bond yields have dropped in sympathy with global sentiment.

Australia's 3-year bond yield is at the lowest level in 6 months, with markets pricing for a potential 3 interest rate cuts over the next 18 months or so.

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust in 2023 – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan for 2023 - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show is also available on Spotify.

3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.4 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,300 followers. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here.